מחוץ לפרוטוקול - פרק 10: ישראל, היום שאחרי

Off the record, the story that begins when the door closes, election edition. Hosted by Yossi Elituv and Avraham Fried. >> What drama, Avraham. What drama. Ay, ay , ay. >> Where do we start? Where do we start? >> Where do we start? Well, we are more than 24 hours past election day, trying to make sense of all the mess in this very big mess. It was a night that started off very interestingly. It began with dancing in the left-wing camp, at the start of the night. >> Depends on where you were watching. >> Yeah? But then in the middle of the night, the right-wing camp cheered. And as we started to drift toward the afternoon of the day after the elections, we realized that neither the left nor the right had won. And getting out of here, as they say in Yiddish, "a kvetsh fun a feitel," is probably one of the most complicated tasks in Israeli politics in the last 50 years. And why do I say it's the most complicated? Because this Arab bloc, which might have pleased the left, turns out to make this "change government" even more illegitimate with the whole new investigation developing from Qatar. But I say: there is no reason to rejoice here. The collapse of Shas makes it very, very difficult for Netanyahu, because Ari is ultimately the maintenance man of the government, and the three "no's" of Liberman who said: no Haredim, no Netanyahu, and no Arabs. So he isn't left with anyone. And all this chaos will lead us in this program to try and paint the five possible governments. And what do we estimate will be at the end? What do you say, Avraham, about this madhouse? >> First of all, I call on everyone to take Liberman's recommendation. Liberman said on election night that he went to a doctor and had a procedure to evaluate his pulse. I say, everyone, we all need a pulse check here, because as you said, the conception of the two camps has collapsed. It is also the right-wing camp that thought it was winning with a bloc and walked with eyes closed toward this event, even though it was much clearer that they wouldn't manage to reach a bloc. There were still those who believed and even convinced us at times that, yes, the right-wing bloc would pass 61 and there would be a stable right-wing government here, and it turned out that didn't happen. And also the absolute conception on the other side, that Likud lost 10 mandates and that one out of every three Likud voters abandoned Netanyahu and that he is going to end up with a number under 20, that also turned out to be a complete delusion, and it's good that it turned out that way. It was quite clear to anyone who walked the streets and tried to look for disappointed Likudniks; you see even in Kiryat Shmona, yes, even in the northern cities that were marked as the most angry at Netanyahu in terms of his supporters, there are the same numbers there. Netanyahu didn't lose, and I think the headline of this election campaign is this: Netanyahu didn't win, but the "change bloc" lost. And the change bloc lost on two things: one, the largest party is Netanyahu's, two, the largest bloc is Netanyahu's, and therefore this brings us to the fact that Netanyahu is overall satisfied with the result. The Left can tell themselves they are satisfied with the result, but they are deeply disappointed, and we will see where this goes regarding the Defendant Law and the state commission of inquiry. >> Mr. Knesset Speaker, I want to tell you about the great sadness that Bibi should be feeling and the great rupture the Left and Eizenkot are supposed to face. Let's start with Bibi; Bibi supposedly thinks, "I'm now going to maneuver the country, we'll head to more elections, maximize profits, and everyone will come crawling back to me again," and so on. But where is his mistake? We are in a very, very difficult situation. Iran, economic sanctions, and the internal situation is not great. Bibi doesn't really have the ability to perform these endless dances. And if he thought he could rely on the Haredim to give him that 50+ [ mandates], he doesn't have them. He doesn't even understand how much he doesn't have them. Talk to the home of Rabbi Dov Lando, and you'll understand why they didn't return his calls, neither on election eve nor after the elections. They are increasingly convinced that any arrangement possible with someone not named Benjamin Netanyahu is more stable and viable without Bibi than with Bibi. The same goes for Shas. The result of Shas should be a slap in the face to Benjamin Netanyahu. Forget the calls he made to Aryeh Deri, who didn't answer him all day yesterday. Okay? Deri has closed himself off. >> Not answering anyone. >> Not answering anyone with all this situation; we'll talk more about that later. But who kept this government afloat since October 7th if not for Deri? Who gets up every morning, when the entire hive around Bibi has fled, and he has no political person who knows how to do politics other than Aryeh Deri? Aryeh Deri, Aryeh Deri is actually signaling to everyone: "I am tired of this story, I am tired of the business called Shas, I am tired of maintaining the coalition.""I want to think for myself and see what I'm doing ." So who will handle his politics? Will Yonatan Urich do it for him? And Aryeh Deri—Bibi thinks that what was true yesterday will be true tomorrow, and he is missing something central that he already missed in the previous government. The Draft Law for the Haredim is their life's blood. I wouldn't brush that off. Whoever delivers this law to them, they will be with him, regardless of his name. Especially after all the right-wing traditionalists fled Shas and the ranks emptied out, there is no one left to rely on among the traditionalists, because Shas is just an ultra-Orthodox party—there are Ashkenazi Haredim from Poland and Romania, and there are Moroccan Haredim from Tunis and Casablanca, that's the whole story. >> I think, however, that this specific story of the Haredim weakening in these elections, relatively dramatically— especially Shas—and in the end, we count mandates in the Knesset. I think this is actually an event that is good for Netanyahu. It's clear he would prefer them to be strong and reach 61, but when he doesn't have 61, he prefers them much weaker. I think it's possible for a government to emerge where, even with Rabbi Lando's household and various Haredi factions, they think it's possible to form a government with the other side. I think that for the Goldknopf, uh, Aryeh Deri, Yair Golan, Lieberman, and Eizenkot circle, it’s still far off, we will reach scenarios. >> Yeah. And therefore, I think that this is, that this is actually an event that cannot happen. But as you say, we...but let’s say, now I want to talk first of all about exit polls; I was yesterday at Channel 12, I sat there a bit with friends and I really see that everyone is trying to understand what happened here in the world of polls and samples. I don’t suspect them of trying to engineer consciousness, and I say: what, what actually happened? >> Three years. >> It’s not just exit polls, it’s three years, and I understand more and more something that maybe our listeners will kill me for, but it’s this; I think the profession and the level of accuracy of the mystics in Netivot and the astrologers is more reliable than this world called polls and exit polls. Because you know, there was a trend one day to praise Filber to the skies, now in Tzuriel I want to whisper to you quietly: no one knows the job. Sometimes it’s total nonsense and it works, sometimes it’s garbage and it works. It’s a very complicated science. I don’t know how we reached this situation, because I remember once that the value of polls, when I was an 18-year-old kid, the polls were fairly accurate and there weren’t 19 exit polls or 700 polling institutes. And here, everything has become digital and you can talk to the whole nation. And what a disaster, the great Filber seats people in the studio, face to face, all serious like this, saying there is a party struggling to pass the threshold, and in the end we see Lieberman nearing eight mandates— we’ll wait for the soldiers 'votes. You’re also talking about Shas, with what confidence he says Shas will return its mandates? After all, let’s say, if you are a commentator—be a commentator. They walk around with briefcases as if all the...now and the guy from Channel 13 that I’ve known for 25 years. >> Shmuel Katz, such a serious guy, that I say, damn it, who misled him? You’re a respected man. What amateurs. Listen, I think. I think we need to put an end to this event of polls in this aspect. Not put an end to it. It’s clear that we will continue to use polls, it’s clear that we will see it and it’s clear it will influence us. But we need to start looking at pollsters as commentators. As commentators of numbers. They are not commentators like you and me regarding political events. They interpret numbers that they see. They interpret undecided voters who don’t answer them and all kinds of things like that. And wait, let’s break down the mistakes of both sides in this event of the, of the exit polls : we have Filber, who gave the right-wing bloc 62 in his last poll, a sample he did with 8,000 voters as he said, and he reaches a bloc of 62, in practice, in reality, we are at 53-54; we’ll see the final results, but it’s eight to nine mandates away from the results he brought. He also didn’t see the fall of Aryeh Deri and the Haredim. He gave the Haredim something like 18 to 20 mandates. It’s truly madness. We all knew that wasn't it. Liberman, in the sample update, doesn't even pass the electoral threshold according to them. Now, a sample update; that's usually already, you know, you're getting closer to the final result, and yet it still doesn't have Liberman passing there. And on the other hand, the biggest event of the pollsters there was the fact that they brought Netanyahu down from 33 to 19. We talked about this here in previous episodes, that no one sees it, no one identifies it. After all, the media, if there was a decline of a third or more of Likud's power, would have been all over the voters and would have found them. The fact that throughout all the months or throughout all the years— it's been three years that they've been giving these numbers to Likud and the bloc—the fact that they didn't find anyone should have set off a red alarm for them. What is happening? >> I also recommend, Avraham, to really take the whole world of political pollsters on a commercial break until we truly understand who is who. Is there some consciousness engineering going on here? Is this a company of losers? Are there flaws in the system? >> Maybe Qatar interfered in this too. Uh, >> Maybe Qatar is sitting on us here? Maybe there is some other secret Qatar that we don't know about. The sides. >> What does a person do in a business event with such a collapse? Goes backward. Go backward. Don't publish any survey. I suggest some kind of state commission of inquiry for humiliating and degrading the public. And >> I do think it's worth noting the man of the hour. The only one who dared, and he is the only one who dared to sit in the studios, and that is Zuriel Sharon. He was the only pollster yesterday who arrived at the studio and dared to give the data and dared to show how right he was. And this time he nailed it, let's tell the truth: he was pretty close on the blocs, he was pretty close on the party numbers. But look, Yossi, the event here is that the pollsters' mistakes—almost everyone who understands politics, I think, without understanding numbers, knew how to tell them. All sides knew there was no chance Likud would end up with 19 seats ; all sides knew how to say there was no chance that Liberman wouldn't pass the electoral threshold; and all sides knew to say that the Haredim wouldn't bring 18 to 20 seats. The disconnect of the pollsters is just from reality, from their friends, from the people around them. >> In short, whoever urgently needs to know, call the astrologers, preferably in Netivot, and then maybe there's a Baba who is also an astrologer. >> And they see in the stars and see in the sky and they will give you results and arrange it for you in a table with the most beautiful AI in the world. >> Also, unlike their numbers, things change because of prayers and all sorts of things like that, so you know. >> Now let's talk a bit about the possible governments, there are quite a few governments and I'll start according to the probability map; the government with the highest probability that is, like, viable, could be Naftali Bennett, who has already learned to seize opportunities, he knows how to break the partnership with Lapid or bring Lapid with him and enter a Netanyahu right-wing government. In exchange for Naftali Bennett taking over Likud, a rotation with Bibi. And after two years , Herzog arrives and goes home, then Bibi will be President of the State, and Bennett will be both head of the Likud and Prime Minister. What is the easiest part of such an option? That the pig...as they say in Yiddish, the meat isn't that...isn't that kosher, why? Yes, because Bennett hates Bibi and he doesn't exactly love Bibi. He is a nice Haredi who knows how to spot opportunities and exhaust them to the maximum, so why shouldn't this idiot ( pardon me saying that in quotes) take advantage of the opportunity? After all , Bibi is looking for a successor, we understand–the age, the status, the situation–he isn't going to be here for many more years. There is no successor to Bibi in the Likud, why shouldn't Bennett come now? There is one problem here, that Sara really likes Bennett, and a second problem is that he needs to break his partnership with...with...with Mr. Lapid. >> I think it is also worth checking this time, unlike previous times, the party members. >> And the party members need to be checked too, but supposedly the spoils are so large they could also give them away as a gift. That he brought the recruitment law for the security establishment, since after Bibi goes, 90%of the shofars will fall silent and we won't hear from the yeshivas anymore , so what is his reason? Although it is a Sara government, because if you take how much we are talking, basically he will finish it today. B..., if he gets mandates, I say if, if he...the question is how much he will bring with him from Lapid or not. >> 11 12 mandates he will not. >> The question is who...who also within the list, Jonathan, needs to be checked , let's say I know that in Netanyahu's circle they are toying with it, let's call it the Bibi-Bennett government. >> I know that Netanyahu always said that if he crosses 60 he would know how to bring him, I don't know if if less he will be able to, but now let's go to the second government that I call the Lieberman-Bibi government, which I reported yesterday there are already talks, businessmen are involved, lawyers are involved, that supposedly this is the best thing there is. >> There is a person sitting in Vienna. >> And his name is Martin Schlaff, and he, he is the nice Jew from a Haredi home that Netanyahu's people and Yaakov Bardugo and everyone who needs to be is connected to, and he knows how to tie such strings. And the deal is as follows: Lieberman arrives with his party, joins a large Likud, Netanyahu crowns him as the official successor, they rotate for two years, and after that Bibi becomes President of the State and Lieberman becomes leader of the Likud. Meanwhile, he becomes Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, and he brings with him his friend Bennett and makes him Minister of Finance, and then they become two strong axes in the government. He brings the "only not Bibi" crowd and says that Bibi promises he is retiring. Meanwhile, he gets this gift to bring a law that will hit the Haredim on recruitment. I mean "hit," because there is no longer a need to hit them, but it will have a nice packaging. They will also arrange a pardon for Bibi because any unity arrangement will be accompanied by a pardon. Meaning that this trial is dead and has nothing in it. And rest for Israel. There is only one problem with this arrangement: Yibbet Libman is willing to have both his ears and both his eyes removed, but he will not throw Bibi a lifeline. That is to say, large parts of his circle tell him: "Listen, who turns down eight seats to buy Likud leadership, control of the government, and control over the whole system?" But still, he lets his people talk. He doesn't; he wants to bring defectors from Likud, he will look for any way to get there. That this will be the last chance. And Yibet's guys say: "Don't believe all those who chatter, even if this one or that one intervened; whoever hasn't intervened here will never agree to go with Bibi." They tell me the following sentence, and with this I conclude: He has three "no's"—no to the Haredim, no to a draft law, and no to Benjamin Netanyahu. No to Netanyahu—sorry, no to the Arabs, no to the Haredim, and no to Benjamin Netanyahu. No to the Arabs, he will never—he will not trade that. No to Netanyahu—even the "no" to the Haredim can be cooked up. >> Maybe he found a doctor who will extend his fuse there. >> How do you evaluate my story? >> I don't know, because I'll tell you something: Gideon Sa'ar spoke firmly against Netanyahu. He was the man who led all the commotion in the alternative right-wing bloc against Netanyahu; he promised defendant laws and promised what...What the entire Left dreamed of, and in the end, he crawled back and sits and defends Netanyahu. True, true, true. I must, however, deviate slightly from the topic; you gave two scenarios, we want to continue on this event, I agree with you. >> Ah, that is very interesting, but I still want a small point here: you mentioned two scenarios, and in both these scenarios, a "fake" draft law will pass, and therefore I say here... >> What is a "fake draft law"? >> Meaning, draft laws will pass that in the end the Haredim will know how to live with, and draft laws—yes—and these draft laws won't... >> Right, and these draft laws will, all in all, be the same drafts that Boaz Bismuth and Yuli Edelstein will bring. And therefore I connect here, and I want us all—me, you, the yeshiva students, and the entire Haredi sector —who are sometimes shaken by the shouting in the media about how hard it is for soldiers and how hard it is in the IDF and all this commotion, and we say: "Wow, maybe there is a real event here?" And there is probably a real event, but still, we must remember that at the very end, we saw that same commentator, Ben Caspit, sitting on election night when it still looked like the Change Bloc was leading over the Netanyahu Bloc, he sat in the studio and said: "Now we need to put all the election promises in the trash and find a bridge with the Haredim." I tell ourselves: Let's remember very strongly that all sides here will compromise on this issue, and therefore do not be shaken, people of Israel. We, as Haredim, are supposed to preserve the world of Torah with all our might. We see the difficulties that the reservists have and everything, but we must not be shaken by this. And the proof of this is that at the end, a minute after the elections, even before the real results were in, just from polls showing the "change bloc" leading over the right-wing bloc, the shofars of Eisenkot and Bennett threw this issue in the trash and agreed to reach any settlement with the Haredim. That's a point worth noting. Avram, we are moving to a third government, which I call the Iran-Eisenkot-Bibi government. >> An emergency government. >> It is an emergency government where essentially Eisenkot, who is somewhat surrounded by Kaplanist extreme leftists—he’s not really like that, we know he’s not like that, he’s not a big right-winger but he’s not a big leftist either—but this is the group that operates him, and he is a man who is being operated. >> Just like Benny Gantz. >> Yes, yes, exactly the same, really the same thing. Now this righteous Eisenkot is looking for an alternative, but Netanyahu is trying to think how it’s possible to activate the two presidents , Trump and Herzog, so they succeed in creating something urgent, to invite the stars to the United States, to Washington, to the White House, and declare it there, as Trump says, with bells on. He loves having a strong unity government. A unity question says : Eisenkot as acting Minister of Defense, Netanyahu as Prime Minister, a pardon, Ben Gvir out. And then Trump’s friends will be able to earn very nice contracts in Gaza. The Arabs are out, even Golan is out. Democrats, but Haredim, right, center, Smotrich, and also an expiration date for Netanyahu, that he retires from political life. Seemingly this is the most obvious thing, especially when the missiles from Iran come. Surely we understand, without knowing anything and without breaking censorship rules, just reading the news you understand that in a few days we are reaching a major security escalation with Iran, with the reservation of Trump's involvement, but that is the direction now. What is easier than this? What is easier than this? At first they will say they are forming an emergency government, the emergency will become a regular emergency, the regular emergency will become unity, everything will be fine. There is only one problem with such a thing: that if Eisenkot wants to be the leader of the left and he legitimized Bibi in their eyes, then he becomes unfit for marriage [ politically] at that moment. >> He'll end up like Gantz. >> And therefore I think that even if we reach this dialogue and even if there is a security escalation, in the end Eisenkot will need, like Noah in the ark, for the waters to push him into such a thing, and I also don’t see Trump yet so happy and eager to intervene in what is happening here in the country. I want to hear your opinion, Avram, a bit. >> Who is Eisenkot’s circle? Who is whispering to him? >> Ronen Manelis. >> Manelis, how are decisions made there? Share them with us. >> We know Ronen Manelis quite well. He managed the election campaign for Eisenkot—yes, you can compare him quite a bit to Yonatan Urich: just as he was the campaign manager here, he was the campaign manager for Gadi, and we know him quite well from the studios on Channel 12. We know his very, very rigid positions—he has positions that are really "Kaplan" to the fullest, fully, fully. Fully, yes, he believes in cooperation with Haredim, but when it comes to the issue of Likud or dialogue regarding judicial reform and such things, his positions are very extreme. I think that if we are talking about this event of a unity government, I am not getting so carried away by this euphoria, for a simple reason: I like to learn from the past. The past taught us in two cases, and by the way —these are two emergency cases—that it doesn't really work. Once, Benny Gantz joined Netanyahu when the coronavirus pandemic was spreading here in Israel. That thing ended in disappointment for all parties. This was a government of paralysis. It didn't really work. All the parties there argued all day and all night about Avi Nissenkorn, who was Minister of Justice, and all sorts of things like that. The second case was after October 7th. When the mediator Erdri brings Gadi Eisenkot and Benny Gantz into the government, and shortly after the establishment of this government, the expansion of the government, Benny Gantz makes a whole mess about transferring money to preschool teachers, something they passed in the government. It's really behavior, you know, that Benny Gantz, certainly if he wasn't managed by Kaplanists at the time, would not have gotten hung up on a few tens of millions transferred to Haredi preschool teachers. After all, even if you want to change, you don't change in the middle of a war period. Why are you making a mess of that now? And yet he made a whole scene about it and there were arguments and fights all day. And in the end, I want to remind you of one thing: in these elections, the third bloc, this bloc that ran on the unity government ticket, collapsed. It didn't succeed. Why? I don't know exactly why, but the people of Israel don't really believe in this issue, in this product of unity; everyone here wants their side to prevail. I also remind you that in this government, they are supposed to appoint an Attorney General and they are supposed to appoint a State Attorney and a slew of judges. I don't see how such a thing works out in any case, in any way. I don't see how Karhi knows how to sit with all sorts of, you know, Kaplanists on the other side. I think a unity government won't work, but it could be established for a first period , and it might be preferable to further elections. >> Now let's go, how many segments have we done? >> Three. Let's go to the fourth, which is that I woke up this morning with the thought that seemingly this is the easiest government there is, which is a center-left-right-Haredi government. Why left? The Democrats. Why center? Liberman. Why right? Bennett. He is also a type of right. After all, if you neutralize the Netanyahu events, in the end, you are left with Bennett. That is right-wing, Democrats. Eisenkot is center, Haredim. What. What is in such a government that is 60 plus? It has one advantage: the Haredim come and say , listen, let's form a government for a period, even for a year, a year and a half. Eisenkot as Prime Minister, security...Ben-Gvir or Gallant, Minister of Defense for...for internal security, it could even be Yair Golan, he won't do more or less damage than others. The Haredim will get their positions, they will announce that the security establishment will bring a regularization law for yeshiva students and that the Haredim won't touch it. And Yaakov Asher is the crafty, smartest fox who knows how to stitch such a thing together. Now, such a government is the easiest government there is. Why? Because you only need to pass one Haredi. But pay attention, this whole group gets Bibi's head. And Bibi's head has already been severed in the homes of the Gedolei Yisrael. That is to say, Rabbi Dov Lando, Maran Rabbi Dov Lando and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef still don't trust Bibi today. It's not for nothing that they don't return his calls. Therefore, when I have to think about what will be, when Yaakov Asher comes in another week or 10 days to Rabbi Dov; and even Aryeh Deri comes to Rabbi Yitzhak and tells him: Listen, we are in a very, very, very specific event right now. The only ones who can pay, and they will pay because they will bring the High Court, the Supreme Court justices, the media mouthpieces, and everything—why not do it? So it's true, Aryeh has the...the Oslo and Left trauma, but on the other hand, all the right-wing horses have already bolted from the stable. In the end, he remains a Haredi party, and he has to wake up every morning facing families whose children are deserters and draft-dodgers. If they know how to bring it, and they will bring it in five minutes—you won't believe, Avraham, what...how they will make this turn and this spin. All the self-righteous types, from Amnon Abramovich to Bachar, will sit in the studios and say: It is the order of the hour to save the State of Israel. This is a government that makes the most sense to me and it's a government that no one is talking about. >> I think it would be an amusing government and an even more amusing opposition. I can just imagine Ben Gvir , Smotrich, and Netanyahu raising every possible law to drive a wedge into this government. Whether it's mandatory Yiddish in the State of Israel or whatever other circus you want. I think it would be very amusing. I think it closes the door for Shas to return to the periphery, to the traditionalists. There's a huge rift between Shas and the Likud that Aryeh Deri, as you say, is still trying to clear his name of today regarding Oslo. I don't see this thing happening, not politically, not that it would last, and not at the conceptual level, since Yair Golan and all that Left will eventually want to promote their own things. >> You will be surprised, Avraham, you will be surprised. For the Haredim, the draft law, it all starts well; for the Left, the Center, and the Right of Bennett and Liberman, it's about removing Netanyahu. >> It's a religious war. >> I agree that maybe you could form such a government, but I'm asking you. >> And also the new leadership in the parties, sorry, think about what Rabbi Lando, Rabbi Moshe Hirsch, and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef think about Benjamin Netanyahu. But I think that even so, let's say the draft law passes half a year after the government is formed— you no longer have anything to hold this government together. It will simply...it will collapse into itself, just like the minority Arab government. That is my opinion. I also don't see Liberman and Bennett backing down so quickly on the issue of equality in burden. >> I think there will be equality in burden, you will be surprised. >> That Liberman will be willing to eat the model—by the way, they will spin it so beautifully, the mouthpieces will train on it, you won't believe how they'll craft the rhetoric, how they'll do it. >> So we've understood the fourth government, now the fifth government— which doesn't exist, but it must be mentioned because on paper it exists— is a left-center-Arab government. >> A dream for the Right, relatively. >> A dream for the Right, because they say that... >> Except for Netanyahu, who is terrified to leave his office for even a single day. >> What is the problem with this government? Explain, Avraham, why it is impractical after October 7th, when fronts are open everywhere and security issues drive the country; after all, in every study conducted, the thing that interests Israeli citizens the most is security. And in the end, in the end, in the end, you know, the State of Israel—it doesn't have a single quiet day in terms of security. Ultimately, forming a government with this Yousef Jabareen—or whoever, I don't even know him yet, the new chairman of the Joint List—who says Hamas is a charity organization, and when asked if Hamas is a terror organization, he says it depends on the coalition negotiations—I don't think such a thing can exist. What could happen is that they will form such a government anyway, and bank on the fact that they will manage to dismantle the bloc later on—the Right-wing bloc that doesn't really exist—and they have reason to rely on that, let's say, in this event. It could be that they will manage later to bring in United Torah Judaism and then drag Shas into this matter as well , because as you say, we are in a new reality with a leadership, I would say a new rabbinical leadership that influences things here—Rabbi Landau, Rabbi Hirsch, and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef —and therefore they might swear in a minority government that will hold up at the beginning. After that, they will try to dismantle the Haredim there, and maybe, maybe, maybe something like that —where, Avraham, is Bibi's big mistake? Again, beyond the fact that he doesn't have the Aryeh—Aryeh Deri who isn't by his side—Bibi has another, Bibi has a big mistake. Yes. >> He doesn't understand that the Haredi parties will not enter any government before the law passes. Meaning, even if some Haredi politician goes crazy and says, "Let's take positions and wait a year," it won't happen. The houses in Degel, the Rebbe of Gur, Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef—everyone is a consensus. They will say, "Guys, play outside, give us the law." We went to your extreme situations and promised them this promise. You are not going to break it. Now, Bibi doesn't understand how he will form a government. I am also not sure that all the Haredim will agree to support the government, even from afar, before you have the draft law. Meaning, a Right-wing government, even with 54-43, let's see how it ends, is also not real because the 14 Haredi seats don't really exist. >> No, there is no Right-wing government because there is no 61. But even if I tell him, "Yair, Yair, you brought the leavers, you brought Bennett." >> And that leads me to the point where Netanyahu will do everything in the near future to use this transitional government to move to more elections. He was promised that he is like the King Messiah, he has eternal life. He doesn't care about his medical file; he is prepared to take us for another round. There is one small problem: people are tired, the country is tired, the economy is tough. It's not a state, and if the Iranians throw two or three missiles at us—God forbid—it will remind us of the region we're living in . Anyone who thinks that what happened in '19 and '20 can be dragged on and on and pushed aside, doesn't understand what's happening here either. The center-left realizes it won't know how to bring the planes from the world again, and the Qatar Arabs won't return to us again; therefore, the center-left will find any possibility, and the Haredim will go to whoever gives them the goods. >> I agree. I think we should close this chapter by mentioning Prime Minister Netanyahu and his absolute outburst towards the Haredi sector on election day. Netanyahu got up in the morning, I understand he wasn't feeling well. He had headaches, so he was delayed. There were some other known problems at home and all sorts of things like that, from what I understand. But as soon as he got out and started receiving the data and realized that the Haredi street had something going on, and maybe the Haredi voters weren't coming out, he went wild on every possible phone of every Haredi journalist, every Haredi person who was sold to him as someone who could help and assist; he went wild on every line, and Netanyahu went on interviews with them. >> How do they say, every Tom, Dick, and Harry got a conference call now with Netanyahu. >> It’s not a conversation, it’s like a recording; you answered Netanyahu and he says "What's happening? Why aren't you going out to vote at all?"— scolding you, and then you try to tell him, "Look, there's disappointment."" What disappointment? Who's disappointed ?" The man continues with his well-known mantra monologue. And listen , if you said Aryeh Deri got tired, Netanyahu was Aryeh on that day. >> I still want, in this last part of the chapter, to address the Haredi parties, and I want to start specifically with Degel HaTorah. We followed the uncertainty—will they go, won't they go—and in the end, they came to vote, they showed up. >> The formulas of the ads were everywhere , they did all the…but like big shots , they came and brought their goods. The biggest gamble that the Degel HaTorah house had, in making this switch—sending the seasoned generals home on the eve of battle, Maklev, Gafni, and bringing in Yaakov Asher— turned out to be, let's say, quite successful. Look at how the business was managed there? Yaakov Asher manages this business with humility, inclusion, modesty, and at eye level; he enters the room and activates everyone. Suddenly you see that Degel HaTorah had a yearning, a longing for some new leadership, and it proved itself. >> And we learned one thing: there is no such thing as "Bibists" or "Derists"— there is no such thing as "Gafnists," there is no such thing as "Maklev supporters." True, they love them and all, but in the end, the voters of United Torah Judaism are beholden to their rabbis, to the spiritual leadership, completely. United Torah Judaism even went up a bit in these elections, despite the disappointment, despite there being those who didn't even have the energy to go to the polling station and vote. Still, the Haredim, as you say, in the end, this move of replacing Gafni and Maklev certainly didn't cost United Torah Judaism anything; maybe it even helped and benefited. >> Now let's talk for a minute about Shas. >> The great tragedy of the election campaign. >> Explain to me what happened here, how do you lose 100,000 votes, tell me. >> It’s even more than 100,000 votes. It will reach around 110, 120,000 votes, I think. That’s where we’ll end up with the number. And first, look at the difficulty of maintaining a party you're trying to speak for. On one hand , you say the prayer for the soldiers, and on the other, you try to talk to people who scream "We will die and not enlist." And you're supposed to fit all of this into one party. These are conditions you can't really meet. These are very difficult conditions. And I also think we can talk about the level of the campaign Shas ran this time with this event, speaking to the public through WhatsApp groups and...And listen, there are things here that disrespect all sorts of people; I’ll spare the details, but there has been very bad conduct by Shas for two years, or I’d even say the whole term. The entire approach to the draft law from the traditionalists, the approach to the draft law from the ultra-Orthodox —the fact that Deri one day throws a tantrum about a Basic Law for Torah study, the next day he sends you messages about the day you were drafted , and the third day he sits in the cabinet...there is a huge soul-searching that this party will have to do. It’s a massive decline. The municipal elections are imminent; it could be that even before them, we will be called for another round, and then it will face a huge and major test : does it even know how to bring the traditionalists back? Does it know how to bring the ultra-Orthodox back? This story is very dramatic, and there is one big question here, and maybe you will relate to this. Is Aryeh Deri still Aryeh Deri? >> I’ll tell you how I look at Shas. Shas had to deal with two sectors. The fanatical, extremist, angry ultra-Orthodox. " >> We will die and not enlist." >> The "We will die and not enlist"[group] . Which draws strength from groups linked to the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox community that was never enthusiastic about enlisting even before the draft law, versus the mass of traditionalists for whom Rabbi Ovadia is their heart, and so Shas, instead of betting on one group— >> Decided to speak to both and ended up losing both; in the end they said "we will support the 'die and not enlist' deserters, la-la-la." >> They had to visit the prisoners, all the detained yeshiva students from here . And then they go to get votes that had already abandoned them beforehand, and they were lost votes anyway. And on the other hand—the voices of the traditionalists who sit at home, whose sons are in the army, whose sons aren't getting a salary because reserve duty ruined their business, and they hear " We will die and not enlist," and say: " Where is the prayer, where are the laws ?" So what happened? They lost both this and that. Besides that, Shas failed to establish a clear address of rabbis. Shas is a movement of rabbis. Aryeh Deri the chairman is the wise leader. He truly bears the burden and it’s all on his shoulders, and he lives in an impossible reality where I don’t know if any other one of us would behave differently. But in the end, he didn't create a single rabbinic address. And then there were the tensions regarding Maran Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, the house there. By the time they got organized, the horses had already bolted from the stable. Then they sit there, one says "they insulted the Rabbi," another says this, and you get all this mess, this Sephardic stew brought us to a state where we reached the finish line, opened the ballot boxes, and discovered two things: one, that the traditionalists fled and the extremist Haredim also fled. >> We discovered that this time the invisible ones at the ballot box, and secondly, we discovered that something is not working. In Shas 2026. And it's worth an in-depth study that we haven't even discovered yet. >> True, and if ultimately Shas remained an ultra-Orthodox party just like United Torah Judaism, then why do we need two parties? What is it, just because his grandmother is from Morocco and all that? Merge the parties, what's the reason? If Eliyahu, with that sweet candy that keeps giving out gifts all the time, knew how to suddenly bring some new party with Porush, why not have four or five parties together? Do you want to speak to the voters? Learn how to talk to them. Remember that there are Rabbis; the Rabbis should speak, not the poster. You need to put the hierarchy in order; not every Rabbi and Torah scholar can be a decision-maker, for the simple reason that everyone has different eyes. So until 9:00 AM you go with one agenda, until 11:00 AM another agenda, and then you jump to the Rabbis of the Sephardic Haredi community who never supported it . You know, I'll tell a story here that no one knows: there was Hacham Maran Rabbi Ben Zion Abba Shaul, he was the great leader of the Sephardic Torah public in Jerusalem. When I was a kid, he was one of those who were also the cornerstones of the founding. Do you know how he passed away? There was a funeral. Of one of the leaders of the Sephardic Haredi community, and one of the zealot leaders arrived and humiliated him in front of everyone. He returned home with a stroke and deteriorated until his passing. There were always zealot fringes in the Haredi, Ashkenazi, and Sephardic world; everything, everything existed. But everything, the whole game was. How do you give them attention? How do you relate to them? Maran Rabbi Ovadia Yosef wouldn't take two weeks around elections. He set a line: whoever is with him, whoever is for the Lord, whoever is not with him—who is for Baal. It was a very clear line trying to define the circle. In a world full of courts, groups, and sub-groups, this is an almost impossible event. And I look and say: the Sephardic Shas has no leader of his magnitude. But he is old, and he looks at what is happening and a lot of work awaits him. And the reason he shut himself away for a day and a half after the elections is that he was truly asking himself: do I have the strength to shoulder this burden? To dance in front of the courts, in front of the Rabbis, in front of all the intrigues? Now I also have to be the babysitter for Bibi and sit with him, because Bibi doesn't know how to move a millimeter, and then there will be Eizenkot and so on and so forth. And he had thoughts over the last year anyway: maybe it's time to step back a bit, behind the scenes, to let the young people be at the front a little, to let them sweat a bit. The young ones are not, they are not as exhausted as I am. They are talking about names like Ariel Atias on one hand, Haim Biton on the other. I don’t know if these are the names, and I also don’t know if Aryeh Deri will go or will want to go, and how it will end. He always surprises us by staying in the end, but one thing is clearly happening: material fatigue. >> I think Aryeh Deri more or less admits it; in the campaign, I saw the interviews he gave, yes, and he said he was tired and therefore he wouldn't run . Uh, I think that's pretty clear. I, I don’t understand one thing about Shas 'conduct since the election. Uh, and that is the flight. The flight from your activists, the flight from your Knesset members. I, I talked to Shas activists in several cities, in several places. Everyone is stunned by the results, everyone is pained by the results. Where is Aryeh Deri and even Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef? To pick them up, to tell them: Gentlemen, this is Shas, this is not a campaign, this is not a party for a single election cycle. Shas has a message, it has a core, we will fight. Where is the reinforcement? You, these are people you activated here for months, who gave their heart, gave their soul, and get no response from you. A deafening silence. I truly, I cannot understand, and I don’t know if such a thing has ever happened. True , the results aren't heartwarming and it's not fun, but get out there, deliver a message, strengthen your people. You are supposed to meet them tomorrow, you are supposed to go out with them tomorrow maybe for another campaign, for a municipal election. Be a human being, tell them what’s happening, give them some hope, give them a word; I cannot understand this conduct. >> You want to talk? I’ll tell you a story. You told one story about the Rabbi, I want to tell a story about a politician. I, I follow Liberman a lot, I follow Liberman a lot. Avigdor Liberman has views on security and political issues that are very right-wing. I had many one-on-one conversations with him, closed talks; once, I don’t even remember, he offered me to join the party because I represented Haredim. >> Wow. >> I told him that we live in a family that doesn't know how to hate anyone. In politics, first of all, you must hate a few, and then you can start to be a good politician. So he laughed. But then he had a party where he included both Russians and religious people, he told me: "Come, you’re a Chabadnik, you’re Mizrahi, you..." I told him: "We are not built in our family for, for, for politics." And then, um, I remember I said to him: " Tell me, what is your fuel for your public life?" And he says to me: "Look, I am loyal to friends and I am loyal to the path, but someone who makes a mistake with me once—I never forgive them." And look what is happening here: the environment, I say this cautiously, around Netanyahu tailored for Liberman the infrastructure for the latest indictment in the affair of the...in all of them. It was a period where people, the...I don't even know if it was on Netanyahu's behalf, thought they were helping him with it. When Lieberman realized his political rival was trying to put him in prison, he decided that until he puts a tombstone on his face, he won't stop, no matter the cost. And we are paying the price for the madness of those people who harmed Lieberman, and the price of this Russian, the politician from Moldova, who doesn't know how to forgive. >> Listen, it's an amazing thing to see him wandering the Knesset for years now without a promise, without anything. Everyone knows he is in the political wilderness, irrelevant, nothing. And yet he insists, insists, insists. Friends, we are hitting the 50-minute mark with you and we didn't think the episode would go this far, but it will sail for so long. There is so much to talk about. I think >> There is a lot we don't know. Let's tell the truth. >> We do want to say one thing, however. I also have some soul-searching to do. Not just the politicians of the Haredi parties. We must be much more humble, much smaller, have many more question marks, be more careful with people's dignity, and understand that ultimately , hating is not an agenda. There is no such thing as hating. Not Haredim for secular, not secular for Haredi. We must not normalize a discourse of exclusion and contempt. Do you have something to sell? Then sell it. If you want to aggrandize yourself at the expense of someone else's wounds, you aren't really great and you won't have divine assistance. And it may well be that if we go to another round of elections, the Haredi parties should leave all the videos out, the clips, the nonsense, bring the beauty and joy of Judaism out. After all, this was the great missed opportunity of the Haredim . You started to go on a tour across Israel. Go talk to the people. No one went out to talk. You can't just talk with videos and TikToks and whatnots. It doesn't work. People want human contact. And that human contact was missing. >> Okay, >> You've been great company for us, friends. >> Very. >> We will meet, God willing, here next week. We likely have a lot of future here with you. >> Because the next government is still very far off. >> And Netanyahu hasn't decided to go anywhere. >> And Lieberman probably won't go anywhere either. With good news. >> Thank you, thank you. >> Have a good Sabbath. >> You have been listening to Off the Record from the Mishpacha podcast. I am Yossi Elituv and with me is Avraham Freund. Thanks to content editor Tehila Siton, production manager Ayala Goldstein, and sound and video editors Avremi Wiesel and Daniel Levin. All series and episodes are waiting for you on the Mishpacha website, on all podcast apps, and on the telephone line 077-220 200 extension 74. Goodbye, God willing, in the coming episodes. [End]