מחוץ לפרוטוקול - פרק 11: בין טהרן לבלפור

Off the record, the story that begins when the door closes. Election edition, presented by Yossi Elituv and Avraham Freund. >> How are you, Avraham? >> Thank God. What's happening? >> How many governments have you already counted on your fingers? I don’t know, but I’ve mainly been counting—I’m actually quite angry, I don’t really get it. Let's start with that, maybe. >> Please. >> Aryeh Deri—I can't understand the conduct of this man. I don't understand his disappearing act. Fine, you’re a politician, so you disappear; fine, you take a few days in Netivot, here, there , I don't know where, but what about your activists? What about your whole team? Everyone is walking around depressed, not knowing what’s with them? They don't know if they should come to work or not. They don't know if the Shas movement exists or doesn't exist. Of course it exists. I’m just saying, I just don't understand this hunkering down, day after day, after day, after day, and we are already a week into the election campaign and his voice still hasn't been heard. >> And the man doesn't show up. >> Right. We’ll get to Deri later. I want to jump straight into the elephant in the room in this episode. >> Forming governments—you're already in the future. And as for the elephant in the room, it's a very simple question: Is there a possibility of forming one government where Eizenkot is inside, he is its leader, with Bennett, Liberman, Yair Golan, the "Change" bloc, the Haredim outside, Mansour Abbas outside? When we say Haredim, that’s likely Degel HaTorah and Degel HaTorah, because Porush and Stark won't come. The only one who can come to such a move , the Gur Hasidim, is Goldknopf. What kind of Degel HaTorah-Gur axis is that? How many Knesset members is that together? Four, right? Four or five. >> Who are you talking about, Degel and Goldknopf? >> That's four, four. >> That’s four, why? >> Three members...no, four Knesset members from Degel HaTorah and Goldknopf, that's five. So actually, United Torah Judaism can contribute to a government with Eizenkot five, five hands, no more. Porush will never fight with the Chabadniks, and Stark—it's some kind of deal with Porush. So, in fact, there are five Ashkenazi Haredim. It's clear to me that the Sephardim can't support it, not even by abstaining. And we are left with Mansour Abbas and his righteous ones, who could also be the abstainers. This is essentially a classic Haredi, center-left, Ashkenazi Haredi government . Such a government, no matter how you flip it here or there, on paper it works out best. If there’s a calm security reality, and Trump takes the right pill and doesn't go to battle with Iran, and if Bibi doesn't succeed in producing the...the lack...how do you say it? The poison machine—if it doesn't work to disable this whole government camp—we can get there. There is only one problem with this story: on paper, it works very nicely. The question is in reality, at the very end of the day: such a patchwork government that doesn't really have a majority, what...how can it survive? >> Even before that, I struggle to understand what the interest is for Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot to give...to give—sorry, for Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman—what is their interest in handing the crown to Gadi Eisenkot and paying such a price— no, paying such heavy prices? Like suddenly renouncing the promise for equality in the burden, and the renunciation of sitting with the brothers, certainly not after October 7th. And as you said, in the end, there is a question of how long this government can even survive, because the agenda in Israel, no matter how much we want or try to push it aside, is a security one. And even if it weren't security-related , I want to remind you of the event... do you remember the votes in the previous government on...uh...in the previous government with...with Ra'am, the votes on the Judea and Samaria regulations? Do you remember the turmoil that this used to create? Well, on February 28th, uh, we will encounter this for the first time, a vote on the Judea and Samaria regulations. That is also a very, very significant station that, last time, greatly unsettled this government. But even before that, the agenda in Israel is a security one. I struggle to see how this thing comes together, but let's tell the truth. The talk is that there are contacts underway to form such a government, to try to bring this chimera into reality. >> I want to ask a real question, though. There are three spiritual leaders who hold the decision in their hands. Rabbi Dov Landau, the Rebbe of Gur, and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef. We know that for these three, the regulation of the Yeshiva students is number one. If Eisenkot manages to convey a credible message to them, "Here, in three months I will settle this for you—the Ministry of Justice, the Attorney General"—and we know it’s a junta, we know how everything works there. After all, Eisenkot and Bennett really could bring a settlement there. What would stop the rabbis from saying no? Let's go to elections for another round after Independence Day, where we would arrive at the same place we were before . Because then Netanyahu won't be able to settle the Yeshiva students 'issue either. So what? So you...you want to take them in 5787... ... >> take the Yeshiva students on a trip from now until the month of Av and also not provide them with a solution? Give me the alternative. >> Let's also put a few things on the table . The Prime Minister, even if he had a bloc of 64 mandates, doesn't know how to regulate the status of the Yeshiva students. The status of the Yeshiva students will not be settled in a right-wing government without deep judicial reform, which takes time to do and...And therefore, it is clear that if the other side knows how to bring a draft law, then in my opinion, an absolute majority of the rabbis will support this event. But Yossi, I am asking you one simple question: do you see Avigdor Liberman going back so far and going with the Haredim on a draft law? That sounds to me, you know...look, Liberman is a man of his word. All in all, the event there fell apart. >> Look, uh, in the end, this whole event here is an event of alternatives. That's the event—none of them really have the model they wanted to have in their hands. >> All sides lost. >> All sides. Bibi lost a little, Bennett lost quite a bit, and Eisenkot lost a lot. Everyone is dependent on the 19 Arab " righteous ones," and it is a sort of government without a mandate. Therefore, the highest probability is that we are rolling toward another election cycle. But let's, let's, let's open another parenthesis: if we had to advise Avet or advise Bennett, it is clear that the best thing for both would be to make a deal with Bibi to take the, the leadership of Likud and get commitments from Trump and Herzog that in two years Bibi goes home and Avet becomes the leader of Likud and Prime Minister, and same for Bennett. >> But what is the problem? >> There are two problems: the hatred for Bibi, which outweighs any idea that could keep him as Prime Minister for even one more day, surpasses any idea to benefit from him. Martin is on the phone, he is not resting, Yaakov Bardugo is running on the sidelines. There is a very great jurist, a top lawyer connected to Netanyahu, who is running on the sidelines. Everyone is running on the sidelines, but they tell them: "Friends , I am ready to give up the U.S. presidency, first of all, I will remove Bibi from power." The same for Bennett. Bennett would want to make such a deal. Why doesn't he make this deal? You know, they killed him for the fact that he already swindled and refused the , er, like he went back on what he committed to then. So he says: "What, will I come out as a swindler a second time?" After all, you said Naftali is a swindler. And therefore everyone is stuck in the situation; Avet and Bennett cannot come to a deal. The security situation is not extreme enough, even though the jets deafened us all night—for the residents of greater Jerusalem, we couldn't sleep for a single moment. I don't want to bet, but at the end, at the end, at the end you will get some compromise agreement or something; we don't go to war that quickly. And if we don't go to war, there is no way to bring Eizenkot and Bibi into a national emergency government. So what? I...so at the end, at the end, at the end, the probability test leads us to a place where we are going to new elections after Independence Day. >> By the way, the Prime Minister's plan in the talks he held, in the meetings he held, and in the conversations he had days before the elections, was that he would reach 57 mandates and then take the seven mandates of Naftali Bennett, bring them into the Likud, and groom him to be the head, the next head of the right. And we know how it ended: in the end, the numbers didn't add up, the numbers were much lower, 53 for the right-wing bloc, and therefore this thing is not on the horizon. Ah, and let's talk about the role, the role of the President of the State. >> Who is also fully in the picture, and also, despite all the denials, we know that contacts are underway between the President's residence and Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding an attempt to engineer some broad unity government; Netanyahu is supposed to start it, after that he is supposed to perhaps receive the position of President of the State, and then Eizenkot is supposed to be appointed Prime Minister. I don't know if this thing will ripen, but these are also contacts that the Prime Minister is maintaining. He is not ruling them out. He also receives in return a pardon and the end of his trial . Netanyahu is attributed with the saying that he would rather sit in prison than in the President's residence in Jerusalem. So therefore, I am placing an asterisk on this entire plan. But there are meetings taking place regarding these events and discussions, and I must also ask you, Avraham, a question to clarify: who is making the decisions today in Netanyahu’s circle? We see Bibi’s situation; we see him trying to embrace Aryeh Deri after United Torah Judaism is slipping away and sitting on the fence. Aryeh Deri is in no hurry to respond to Bibi’s courtship; he wants to be with himself, a kind of timeout, and I want to ask you a question: who is in charge ? Who does he consult with? >> A huge mess. >> Wow. >> For every issue, there are certain parties involved. >> Explain that to me. >> Everything is scattered; there are hardly any people in the Prime Minister’s Office. >> We already understood that the lady does not particularly like the Chief of Staff . >> True, and we understood there was also a blow-up on election day between the pair , Ido Nordan and Sara Netanyahu. >> Ido Norkin or Nordan? >> Ido Nordan, Mrs. Sara—okay. >> Yes, now there is the specific office that is, let's say, Ido Nordan and Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs. But around this whole event, in the wider circle, there are a host of assistants, consultants, and Likud mayors, each in charge of a different portfolio. I’ll give you an example: before the elections, the one who handled negotiations with the Achi party and the Noam party was Lior Katsav, a man very close to the Prime Minister, very close to Sara Netanyahu, and often mentioned as someone slated to be appointed Chief of Staff. Meanwhile, that hasn't happened, but he walks around the office and manages all kinds of portfolios for him. The incident with the Achi party, he managed to score; the incident with the Noam party, he did not. But when you ask who is managing it—there is no manager. Netanyahu’s office is run like a makeshift operation, but we know the Prime Minister; that is his pattern of work. You work for him, and in the morning you don't even know why you’re supposed to come to work. If we need to be focused and sharp and not confuse our listeners, Netanyahu is focused on one mission. How he thwarts every possibility of forming another government, and how he reaches new elections where the Arab vote will be low, right-wing parties won't waste votes, and in the meantime, Eisenkot and Bennett—a rival among them . And how he survives the business; Eisenkot is trying to bring about every possibility for him to take the opportunity given to him to be Prime Minister. In the middle, we have the zone of Lapid , Bennett, and Lieberman, who are torn apart in this whole story. >> Bennett broke his silence yesterday. Do you also see that they are torn? Do you understand what kind of soul-searching they are going through? Lieberman, was he really working on a Russian chess game? It’s clear that he could have achieved the most insane results. Why? Who gives you the chance with eight mandates to pluck the Prime Ministership , Likud leadership, and take the reins from Netanyahu after almost 40 years? You aren't going to be the next Likud leader, but he can't. Vengeance, sleep, the bitterness overcome every mathematical calculation , and from that trap, he cannot escape; the fact is, he screamed yesterday. Eisenkot, I still think, it's still not final. He could still give it to Eisenkot, because Eisenkot will probably get the...the reins for the first time to try to assemble, he won't succeed, and then you can pluck Bennett. But the chances are still not high for a simple reason: Bennett needs to convince not himself, but the party that is with him . >> Exactly. >> So forget Lapid's people. What about your own people, after you convinced them that the biggest disaster is Netanyahu? That's why I say: in the end, we are two trains speeding towards each other. Eisenkot's train, to find any way to form a government, and Netanyahu's train , which will do everything to reach an election cycle a month after Independence Day. But I still want to dwell with you, Yossi, and you know the man. >> And explain how much Lieberman is a man of his word, because I heard a very interesting story in recent days that slightly reflects the event. Uh, I understood that when Rabbi Amar led this event of the conversion reform , he signed some document with 22 clauses or something like that with Lieberman, that he is going and bringing it and knows how to pass it with Rabbi Ovadia. So Rabbi Amar was the Chief Rabbi, and Lieberman tried to advance the conversion reform with him, and it turned out that Rabbi Amar didn't know how to pass everything he closed with Lieberman with Rabbi Ovadia. Rabbi Ovadia rejected some clauses, and when they came to extend Rabbi Amar's tenure, Lieberman opposed it. And they tried to understand why he is opposing, so he met with one of the rabbis from Religious Zionism. And sorry , no, no; he had—Lieberman had some religious Knesset member on the list who came to a meeting with, maybe I'll also say the name, the head of Merkaz HaRav Yeshiva, Rabbi Shapira. And he asked him: Why are you opposing this event of extending the Rabbi's tenure? Amar. So this Knesset member pulled out the letter of the 22 clauses that Rabbi Amar agreed to with Lieberman, and he told him: two clauses from here that Rabbi Amar gave his word to Lieberman that he knows how to pass them with Rabbi Ovadia —he didn't know, he didn't know how to deliver, and therefore I don't want to. Uh, no, since then Lieberman rejected him. >> A word of Lieberman? You broke my word, you broke my word here, so I ask whether : Does Lieberman know how to break his word on the issue of conscription that he has been going on about for many years? Does he know how to break it? And maybe, maybe I'm trying to insert here, you know, we are in days where we don't know much, we are mainly fed by rumors— maybe with Yaakov Asher it's different, maybe he feels that Yaakov Asher knows how to give him his word. >> Ivet knows how to break a word, he doesn't know how to break his word apparently towards Netanyahu, meaning he runs to get along with the Haredim, believe me, you won't believe how fast he knows how to get along. >> Even with Aryeh Deri. >> Yes, but he doesn't need to get along with Aryeh Deri. >> Because Aryeh Deri is not going to enter any government. >> Even the Ashkenazi Haredim aren't going to enter; they'll go for an arrangement where they support from the outside, or at least abstain and not oppose, and then in three months they'll pass the law and afterward talk about a government, yes or no. If the Haredim are smart, they'll take the law, stay out, and then bring down the government , and they'll do it in the coalition. The discussion is about the guarantees; that is what ultimately leads me to think— , that we won't do it? In the end, we'll go to more elections, but you have to separate Liberman from Bibi Netanyahu. From the moment Liberman became convinced that they did everything to put him in prison—Netanyahu's people on Netanyahu's mission and with Netanyahu's knowledge, at least according to Liberman's version— As far as he is concerned, let the country burn and let all the options and models where he becomes Prime Minister be destroyed, he will not let Bibi stay in power for one single moment. 100%revenge, 0%brains, that's the story here. Or maybe revenge has a brain of its own, I don't know, but that's why you'll be surprised to see how generous he'll be with the Haredim. Obviously, they'll look at the whole event and say : "If the security establishment decided , we won't interfere," they'll invent all sorts of reasons and stories for you , but with Bibi, there is no forgiveness and no pardon. And that is what Bardugo is not sure he understands so well, and that is what Martin Shelhav, who thinks he knows the guy—and he does know the guy—but this part he doesn't know. There needs to be some kind of earthquake for Liberman to agree to step back, give Bibi these two years, and after that be with him, be with him as Prime Minister . Now I want to talk about Aryeh Deri, really Aryeh Deri, and you explain this to me Avraham, because you are younger than me, so maybe you see things I don't see, because sometimes the younger head is less fixed. So I want you to explain to me—if I were advising Aryeh Deri, what would I tell him to do? Hold a nice press conference , say the road is long. >> By the way, if he had done it in the exit polls, it wouldn't have been that he was mourning and bowing his head, it would have been... >> Yes, say, "I embrace all the people of Israel, we are starting a new path." >> Shas isn't a one-day movement, yes, and after all, 300,000 people voted for me. >> It's not the 9,000 of Itamar, 300,000 people in a reality where the Arab vote has taken over the state. What is this? Where is the logic of the smartest man in Israeli politics, which almost no one will argue with me about—Aryeh Deri, he is among the smartest of everyone, bold , cunning, and everything. You do this to yourself, that today you get the headline "Crash" in Yedioth Ahronoth for the whole world to see? Why? Because you disappeared, because you don't come to prayer, because you go ...you are allowed to be sorry, you are allowed to absorb blows. Aryeh Deri really turned the world over, so succeed . He is dealing with a crazy reality, he has to deal with 14 or 15 courts, each of which is sure it should be the leader , and attendants and grandchildren— everything Meir Porush dealt with, who suffered 10 years from the happiness of the leadership in Shlomei Emunim, where he had to lift pots of soup onto planes to Lizhensk just to survive his internal primaries. Now the Sephardic version is going through this, but why not just come out and say: be human, be a person, say we made mistakes, we will learn, we will draw lessons, the road is long. Explain to me what is happening here, Avraham. >> I think this embodies the entire Deri saga of the last few years, and let’s put it this way: to reflect the truth, some hard words must be said, but these are words shared by many people in the political system in recent years. And notice, in recent years, when have we seen Deri appear in the media and when does he come to speak? He didn’t come to speak when it was tough with the hostage deals, when Netanyahu stood against a left-wing media that demanded deals at any cost— Deri didn't stand up then to support Netanyahu, for example. He didn't come to speak when there were disputes surrounding the draft law, and he didn't step up and say: this is the draft law we are currently discussing in the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and this is what we are running with, with the rabbis' approval —he didn't. He left a huge vacuum for anyone wanting to drive a wedge between him and the rabbis, and he (the posters we remember)—he didn't stand his ground . He didn't say: I am in charge; Rabbi Landau, Rabbi Hirsch, and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef approved this law, and this is what we are going with. He didn't do that. And in recent years, the criticism around him has been growing on this issue, as he mostly appears when our planes return from the first wave of the attack in Iran—then he knows how to come to "The Patriots" and radio stations to say how they recited "Shir LaMa'alot" before the strike, and how he said a prayer for Netanyahu, and how he strikes at the memory of Amalek, but in the difficult hours, he always disappears. He lost because of this the first time when the draft law fell on his head. After he had already debased himself and went with a draft law that recruits 50% of the Haredi cycle. It collapsed on his head. He embarrassed himself with this at various other stages with the disputes he had regarding rabbis, Gafni, and all sorts of other events. And now he is embarrassing himself with it again. And instead of waking up, the man, as you say, buries himself in his home, mourning and hanging his head, proving to everyone that the question is whether he is a leader—it is clear he is a political player, a clever political fox , but is he a leader? Does he know how to come and rise in difficult hours like Netanyahu knew how to stand firm when he got 12 mandates? Meanwhile, Aryeh Deri is proving he is not, and there is... >> I...I...I do, but I will focus on the options on the table; he is basically talking... >> I just want to finish; there is a saying that goes... >> It’s always late, but never too late. Therefore, if Aryeh Deri plans to stay here in the coming years, he needs to wake up and start seeing all the mistakes he made in recent years and not repeat them. >> Let’s put it this way: if he had any thoughts of stepping down from leading the movement, those were thoughts from the early days; they no longer exist. If he retires from the Knesset, he will do so if he takes a few others from the first tier with him. >> Someone tried to... >> There are already two or three he is talking to, clearly, through messengers , and he will go all the way with this. It may be that in the end he stays and they go, but that is the move. He wants the young ones at the top. He thinks that in this situation where there are six left, half interesting plus, he is not willing for older people to remain. You don't always know how generous he will be to them. He will agree, one to make him head of a religious council, one to be chairman of a rabbinical board . He will arrange everything, no, but okay , but. >> Come, let's say now where Aryeh Deri's change will actually be, and this I think personally, by the way, not so much from a calculated decision as from a bit of weariness of the material. Aryeh Deri is a very smart man, reads the map, but power is needed and it is a very, very complex political reality, both generally and internally within the sector. Aryeh Deri will slowly move back and give the reins to several young people, each in their own fields. He will try, first of all he cannot make any change in the Council of Torah Sages for a simple reason: he may have elections again, so what does he need these troubles for? As far as he is concerned, the status quo will remain, he has, he has, he has nothing to do to keep the status quo, but. He What he will do is he is...you will see him start to slide backward and be more behind the scenes and less involved. You won't see him running to save Bibi, he's going for this move, the whole WIZO system with his volunteering to solve all the problems is over and he also won't be on the front lines. And if there is a left-wing government, you won't believe how he disappears completely. He won't want to be connected to this, he won't want to be identified with this story, not even with silence and faith that the rabbis will deal with it. No, he...suddenly you will see that the rabbis will decide. And if Bibi needs maintenance for another half year to be saved from Bitan or others, he will find others to do the work for him, the gift department, Aryeh Deri's charity fund. >> Closed. >> Closed, and now you will see Aryeh Deri start to take care of himself, thank God . >> Going to study. >> Going to study Torah, a very smart man, warm with many friends. >> He is not leaving Shas, he also won't release, he won't release Shas. >> But there are no more gifts, now give me a review of what is happening in the renewed Degel HaTorah with the new-old leader Yaakov Asher, and where are Gafni and Maklev in this event? >> First of all, Gafni and Maklev are, you know, far back in history, they are no longer relevant, it was expected that they wouldn't be relevant. We might see Gafni come to faction meetings here and there, but the entire leadership is handed over to Yaakov Asher. And I think we still don't know how to read this person well enough. It is clear that he is a doer, a person who knows how to lead moves, a practical person who doesn't act on emotions, who acts solely to achieve the result, he together with Duvid Shapira. They will act solely for the lofty goal , and that is achieving results for the voters. Achievement, bulldozers—that is what they want. We have seen them achieve results until today, and now we will see them achieve results with even greater force in this situation with Eisenkot. I think that, at least based on my conversations with Yaakov Asher, he would still prefer the right, he would still prefer Prime Minister Netanyahu. He holds him in high regard; by the way , it’s mutual. Yaakov Asher would often go behind Gafni’s back to the Prime Minister with rabbis and with practical tasks that he suggested the Prime Minister take on. Uh, you know, Netanyahu quite appreciates him and sees him as a dramatic change from Gafni. Gafni would wake up on Sundays or every few days and need Netanyahu’s validation , to get into the office, for Netanyahu to show him the red folder with the security threats and all kinds of, you know, all kinds of things that Netanyahu knows how to use to soften people up. >> As for Netanyahu doing that to Yaakov Asher, he couldn’t care less. Yaakov Asher would very much like to resolve the enlistment issue in the coming months and immediately after that to enter the government, take government ministries for Degel HaTorah, and deliver results. He is eyeing more than just the Ministry of Housing, but also the Ministry of Religious Services, and after Deri—yes, and after Deri weakened—he will, so to speak, turn his eyes even more in that direction. Everyone knows the Ministry of Religious Services has an endless package of jobs , and Yaakov Asher will demand to be part of that this time. Whether it’s city rabbis, heads of religious councils, and what not. Therefore, I think it will be very fascinating with this person. Uh, and we are mainly waiting to see what happens. We know there are quiet contacts surrounding Eisenkot. We’ve talked about that. >> Yes. Friends, I want to tell you something. We will finish on a note of a big question mark. We have mostly raised questions and posed possible theses. What will happen? It’s truly impossible to know. I suggest everyone look at one single fact: the planes taking off for Tehran. As our planes take off there, and as, God forbid, things come back from there , that is where the decisions will be made. So we will need to clear the skies for the events in Tehran. Only after we know what is happening there will we be able to decide and know which government will be formed, if any , or if we are headed to elections. You were very pleasant company, friends. >> We will meet here, God willing, next week. Thanks for joining us. >> Goodbye. >> You have been listening to "Off the Record" from Mishpacha Podcasts. I am Yossi Elituv, and with me is Avraham Freund. Thanks to content editor Tehila Siton, production manager Ayala Goldstein, and sound and video editors Avremi Weisel, Daniel Levin, and Hillel Willhelm. All series and episodes are waiting for you on the Mishpacha website , on all podcast apps, and on the phone line 077-220, extension 74. Goodbye, God willing, in the next episodes.