קצר על העניין: חשבון בבקשה | פרק 2

Short on the Matter, short chapters for people with heads, hosted by Israel Yosekovich and attorney Avi Blum. >> Avi Blum, we are one day after the polls closed. How do you see the rather complex picture that is becoming clear before our eyes? >> Listen, first of all, it's a puzzle, not a picture—meaning, every second another piece of the puzzle enters. So let's talk first about Netanyahu, and I think that in his entire career, including '96 and 2015. You can't say it's his biggest victory because he didn't win, but in my opinion, it's his greatest achievement. After October 7th and the judicial reform, when everyone thought he was at his lowest, when it looked like he was crashing, he managed to bring about a personal vote of confidence. A deficit of 11 mandates is not an achievement, and it was also expected; it was discussed, and whenever they spoke with Filber, he said he didn't see the ten mandates that left the Likud, so here are the 10 mandates that left the bloc. >> There aren't ten according to the numbers. >> Let me finish—although the Likud managed to drink the remaining mandates from its bloc partners, there are 11 mandates here. Last time it was, like, 64 mandates; now, according to the emerging results, even before counting the double envelopes, we see 11 mandates. Last time they were at 64, now they stand at 53—that is a 11- mandate deficit for the bloc. >> Israel, it seems to me you are rounding the numbers a bit, because last time they received—if you look at the real numbers of the Likud, 28 mandates— they received the rest of the votes because of votes that went to waste, which this time were on the right side, so the Likud didn't lose its power. One can talk about Shas or the partners, but the Likud did not lose its power. What I wanted to say about this is something else that you might like to hear. Everyone comes with predispositions from home; even Bibi, in the end, if you give him a choice— if he wants to replicate a narrow government of 61 when Ben-Gvir is holding him, locking him in like that with Smotrich and also the Haredim— maybe he prefers this constellation; he has nothing to lose. If they go to elections, he will probably come out an even bigger winner. Unity will be his pardon. I'm not sure he wants to exit the map as a prime minister of a minority that polarizes half the nation , and it could be that, in hindsight, it will turn out well for him. >> First of all, regarding the numbers, you might be right numerically if you look at...if you crunch the numbers. But at the end of the day, we are facing monster turnout percentages, and therefore, ultimately, when we...we need to look at the mandates. So in terms of mandates in the Knesset, he arrives at the Knesset with 11 fewer mandates for his bloc. But wait, according to what you are saying now, could there be an even more ideal result? That he really is the one who always said he liked a wing in all his governments since 2009—he liked having a left wing, to have a left wing in the government, whether it was Ehud Barak and later Tzipi Livni, Yair Lapid , and so on and so forth. >> This time it's half the vehicle. >> But based on what we saw in his speech yesterday, we did see that he is still aiming, first and foremost, to consolidate his bloc, and this raises suspicion that he will try to secure defectors rather than form a unity government. We are already hearing in the last few hours about his attempts to recruit various defectors, like Eli Avidar, to try and exploit their principles regarding not relying on Arab parties, the anti-Zionist parties, and use that to bring them to his side. I don’t know how successful this will be, but what is succeeding is the atmosphere. From a situation where he could have, the bloc could have been proud that they are light-years away from 61 seats, he is actually creating a perception that he is the one initiating, he is the one on the attack , he is the one you constantly need to be wary of, while the other side is always on the defensive despite having 67 seats in the Knesset, and that really plays into his hands. I think, however, that this is more than just political theater, because there is still a possibility that they will form a government and remove him from the Prime Minister's office—although I don't see that happening. Anyone who does that will lose seats, and Bibi knows that too, and he said yesterday: "Let's see them try." It is more the story of the other side, which felt it had placed all its bets, with incredible turnout percentages, flights from abroad, and also excellent voter turnout in the Arab sector, and in the end, you fail to bring down Bibi’s numbers on a personal level. Here is some kind of breaking point, or perhaps a turning point, where in the end they realize there are so many voters behind him and it cannot be ignored; therefore , in this sense, I think that is what causes the feeling of despondency in the "change camp" more than the numbers themselves. >> So let me tell you, the issue, in the end, is Benjamin Netanyahu. For better or worse, he is always the one initiating, he is always the one playing the game, and everyone else runs to his court and tries to block him. We saw this throughout the election campaigns, certainly in the last election campaign, and we are seeing it now: that everyone is constantly busy with what he is going to do and how we will stop him. The bloc right now, at least in the last few hours, we see it struck dumb, stunned, going underground, not trying to initiate. As I understand it, there aren't even any serious talks taking place between them to try and see how they can realize and leverage those 67 seats as a blocking bloc. There are no talks whatsoever. Liberman has cut off contact with his partners in the bloc, and he has been briefing journalists in the last few hours, telling them he does not intend, on one hand, to go into a unity government under any circumstances. "By hook or by crook," as they say, with Benjamin Netanyahu, he will not sit. But on the other hand, he says that anyone who thinks he will support a minority government is living in La La Land. He has no intention of doing that; he intends to play bunker. >> He also blames Gadi. >> Yes, and he tells Gadi to go for a unity government, I... >> A few things: first, by echoing Bibi’s campaign and saying he would work with the Arabs, he boosted Bibi’s campaign. Secondly, the "big party" campaign ultimately served Netanyahu more than anyone. Because, as you say regarding the numbers, it’s true that the Likud brings a larger Zionist majority, but the Haredim, Goldknopf and Gafni—well, not Gafni, but if it weren’t for the non-Zionists among us, you know, you know the texts—but when you have numbers like 27 versus 20, that’s dramatic. And here they are indeed blaming Gadi Eisenkot. I must say that Gadi Eisenkot, who conducted himself well, stumbled yesterday. He stumbled both in the campaign and in not committing to all the things he spoke about during the campaign in his victory speech. Wait a minute, like Bibi? Wait, speak a little. He is a great general, no doubt, but a political novice, and that also affects the scenarios and the situation. >> A good man, a nice man, though it’s hard to say he’s a great general and certainly not a politician. >> He was Chief of Staff, but in politics, he's a novice. To that, yes, that is an answer. Perhaps the Israeli public also has quite a few people who feel that’s what they’re missing at this time, but bottom line, we are facing a real deadlock here. I see fatigue on both sides among the citizens to go to more elections, to go to more rounds, when they could really form an amazing national unity government here, leaving the extremists on both sides out: Ben-Gvir on one side—by the way, because of whom 19 Arab seats were reached—and on the other side, Yair Golan. >> Yes, this time he handed out chocolate ornaments to the Arabs. >> And simply establish a national Zionist government here that can truly, finally , bring healing to Israeli society. It could work; I’m hearing rumors in the last day that people are saying President Trump intends to do this, from what I understand. >> Tell me, if Trump really turns to it, I think that in coordination between the two presidents, Herzog will go for it all the way. He is not Ruby Rivlin; he won't let another failed election cycle happen on his watch, and he will involve Trump if necessary; the disconnect will turn into a hot line. If Herzog is a bit smart and knows how to work—and he does; he proved he knows how to play politics—he needs to approach Netanyahu now, grant him a blanket pardon, and remove this whole trial story, without ifs, without buts, and without conditions. Simply not to give up, to say: Israeli society has truly entered a real crisis here, not least because of those same 1000, 2000, 4000 cases—some will say they are framed, some will say they are problematic and complex, and some will say, let the trial speak for itself. But ultimately, Israeli society can no longer carry on its back those same cases, that same trial that has been dragging on for so long. A blanket pardon must be granted. It is very possible that we will see Netanyahu return to his big numbers at that very moment when he forms a government. >> Israel, I want to save a minute for something from your world. Allow me to ask you: the Iranian story, what are the chances we’ll see it? After all, yesterday Gadi Kadmon called on the security cabinet not to cooperate with reckless moves—I am paraphrasing in my own words. What are the chances that Bibi, after Trump's midterms on November 6th, might be seen next week launching a short campaign in Iran while still in a transitional government as Prime Minister? >> Yes, President Trump himself is already talking about the need to prepare for another campaign. We are also seeing US forces that are steadily increasing in the region. I don't know to what extent this is really just posturing, or if it's something practical. Either way, we can expect some really difficult hours and difficult weeks regarding this matter. Our own system is also truly very tense. What will the bottom line be? I don't know yet. >> Yisrael Yosefkowitz, we will conclude this episode. We haven't talked about the Haredim; let's leave something. We do two episodes a week, so let's leave something for next week when I travel to the midterms in New York. >> Hopefully, by then you will be in Washington, the clouds here will have cleared, and we will actually see a unity government because it is the order of the hour. >> Do you think that can happen in such short timeframes? >> I am convinced that with a little real maturity and a true desire, the citizens of Israel will finally achieve peace and internal unity if both sides rise above all the disputes and just do it. By the way, I think it will also be good for us Haredim, because a recruitment arrangement can only be reached through consensus, when it isn't perceived as a sword used to strike the other side, but... >> Undoubtedly, and that is even before we talked about the great collapse of Shas , but that is for the next episode. >> Oh, that needs a podcast, not 10 minutes; the Torah, Shas—a one-hour podcast. >> Undoubtedly, Avi, thank you very much. >> Thank you very much, Yisrael, good night. >> Good night. >> You’ve been listening to "Katzar al HaInyan"(Briefly on the Matter) from Mishpacha Podcasts. I’m Yisrael Yosefkowitz, and I was joined by Attorney Avi Bell. Thanks to content editor Tehila Siton, production manager Ayala Goldstein, and sound editors Dvir Mivizel, Daniel Avin, and Hila Vilar. All series and episodes are waiting for you on the Mishpacha website, on all podcast apps, or on the phone line at 077-22. Extension 77. See you in the next episodes.