קצר על העניין: סופו של הגוש? | פרק 3

There are things that happen only in the family. >> For subscribers, dial*6485. You are listening to the Mishpacha podcast. "Short and to the Point," short episodes for people in a rush, presented by Yisrael Yosekowitz and attorney Avi Blum . Attorney Avi Blum, hello to you. >> Yisrael Yosekowitz, hello to you too. >> Well, we see here, we are already after the elections, and we see many events that we more or less anticipated would occur. We didn't necessarily expect these numbers, but tomorrow the smaller parties are going to appear at the President's residence and recommend their candidate for Prime Minister. We know on the surface what each one will propose, but beneath the surface, all sorts of things are brewing, and I am mainly talking about the Haredi sector. Listen, true, I can start with you perhaps from a personal angle, because I know that for years, >> I think you might be the only one in the Haredi media who keeps saying, "Guys, talk to the Left too." You suddenly see it becoming mainstream . I didn't say "talk to the Left," I always jump in and say >> that the Left hardly exists in the country, and whoever is on the other side of the divide and opposes Benjamin Netanyahu is not the Left. And therefore, okay, we've given that definition and you always repeat it, and that's fine. But stay with my train of thought for a moment; I'm saying what you always said, and you know, sometimes even as media you hesitate if it's right to say what they'll say, because the public has moved very far to the right. You suddenly see it becoming the mainstream; you see that it's almost the official line of United Torah Judaism. Furthermore, in the end, we live daily by the public mood. You see that the public there says, if we know how to bring, even with Gantz, if we know how to bring some kind of understanding that will prevent the blockage of yeshivas, something Bibi cannot bring, we are there, and I ask you on a level >> I will tell you exactly what they are really trying to lead here. >> I will tell you first of all: I feel it is very complete. I would be very happy if it happened, but I find it hard to believe it will, due to several reasons that are not logical reasons. From a logical standpoint, it is clearly the most requested thing right now. Haredi Judaism, which truly bore the brunt of the burden for many years (especially in recent years due to the alliance with Netanyahu), has made a decision to step back from this fight. It got hit, we know. This whole story of the draft— that is not really the story. The big story is, at least from within the Change Bloc (I'm not talking about Religious Zionism, which is truly angry about the manifestations of Judaism and because they want Netanyahu), and the moment you arrive... >> And we see it now, that it is unfolding , we see how suddenly everyone is talking differently. >> Yes, now I will tell you something: the plan is as follows. A plan, in my opinion, very, very sophisticated. I hope it materializes; I am not sure it will materialize. Reaching the Change Bloc...to push for unity, in my opinion , will lead to forcing unity also on Netanyahu's side and, essentially, United Torah Judaism. What was achieved here isn't a sweeping light now, but the revival of the entire conflict, the whole conscription issue as a four-year temporary order, legislated for the healing of Israeli society. This will come with a package deal the President will lead, both this and a sweeping pardon for Benjamin Netanyahu, including the removal of moral turpitude, everything—closing the trial, closing the cases for the healing of Israeli society. What Netanyahu needs to pay right now, again, what they are trying here... >> Wait, can I stop you for a second before that? >> Yes, certainly. >> Let's talk for a moment about the payments and let's go back to what you asked at the beginning. The small parties are going to make recommendations; it's possible United Torah Judaism won't recommend anyone. We are already hearing this talk about Netanyahu, but one must consider that the whole process you're talking about, if it happens—and it's highly doubtful it will—meanwhile, the process is good for us, the Haredim, because it truly exposes that the whole recruitment story is final. >> No, it doesn't expose it. First of all, it doesn't expose anything. That is where I disagree with you: it exposes that they are willing to reach understandings with us. That the whole story—not at all, because everyone who ...no, let me just escalate for a second , if I may. But in the end, if it happens, it will happen at the very last minute. Meaning, at the end—maybe at the end of Eisenkot's mandate, maybe at the end of Bibi's mandate, maybe in the 21 days that remain afterward for someone to form a government. If there are understandings here, they will be on the edge, and ultimately the central player holding the cards is Avigdor Liberman, and with him, you can never tell what he wants. But you started to say that I'm wrong, so please go ahead. >> Look, in the whole context, I know all sorts of people associated with Netanyahu and people who are very, very —let's call them his mouthpieces—are trying to sell that suddenly the change bloc has been revealed, and suddenly he isn't thinking about the Haredim; it's simply a lie and it's demagoguery. They say: "Everyone knows, everyone knows." Even those who say it, and I've seen it in the last few hours, even those who say it know—they know, and they themselves said it not long ago— that the first commandment for the change bloc (rightly or wrongly, justified or not, it doesn't matter) was the issue of removing Netanyahu from the Prime Minister's position, based on an understanding, a perception (perhaps a mistaken one of theirs, I won't get into that) that he is the one causing everything happening in the country in recent years: the chaos, the hostility from outside, the division from within, and so on and so forth. That was the first of all things. The additional things came later. After October 7th? I am telling you that before October 7th there was 2019, there were years before October 7th. >> And there they wanted to give a sweeping exemption to the Haredim, wait, put Bibi aside for a moment, I am saying...but it turns out...I started telling you the nature of, I started telling you, today everyone here is wearing masks, so I am telling you. >> Let me just tell you the mask from this perspective, and I'm interested in your opinion, Israel. Let me finish what I see here, and maybe you see it differently. >> Ultimately, you see that this whole story where they say "all or nothing," and not even a single yeshiva student, and we aren't willing to reach any compromise. In the end, you see that this whole story was just to attack Netanyahu and not allow him to move forward with the Haredim on a law. And it could be that we need to make our own worthwhile considerations of who to go with. But you see that from this perspective, it's not ideology, it's fake. >> Please. Yes. Look, I understand there is a strong desire to conflate the radicalism of the legal advisors and the judicial system with the "Change Bloc." Gadi Eisenkot never said such a thing as "all or nothing," and if you start bringing me evidence now from what Bennett says with his one mandate, I'll bring you evidence of what Ben-Gvir says and attribute it to Netanyahu. I am speaking to you now about those who lead the blocs, the sides. And by the way, in the interviews he gave to Benny Reuven, he said he would be willing to compromise. The one who guarantees this is Lieberman, but once again—the first thing for them is to oust him. Can you let...let me just finish the...a second about Gadi Eisenkot, what he did say; we have a mutual friend, Shalom Raj, who reached out. >> Wait Israel, here I am telling you something he said without quoting: he reached out to him, he heard a story, he asked me, and I told him I also heard that Gadi Eisenkot is willing to meet halfway. He reached out to him and Eisenkot told him: "I agreed to 3%only, and I won't agree to a comma more than that." >> Fine, so he isn't talking, so in the end it turned out to be fake, they are willing to be... >> That is what I meant, please go ahead. >> We aren't talking here about getting into the details of the law, we are talking about the whole story, so to say "we aren't giving up anything" and postponing it by four years because the most important thing right now, whether they are right or not, is to remove Netanyahu from his position as Prime Minister—now they arrive, United Torah Judaism arrives... >> United Torah Judaism followed Rabbi Shteinman's approach to delay and roll it forward, and if they are willing to do that, then it turns out it's all fake , that is my argument. >> United Torah Judaism is now coming focused on one goal: it wants to settle the enlistment law, and that is why it is coming. And it says: I will go to Eisenkot’s side, I believe that through him we can reach a settlement here, and we will force Netanyahu to take the second part of the rotation. He won't want to? We will not go on the adventure of elections; it’s not good for us, it doesn't contribute, it only hurts us. It is once again extending the suffering that the yeshiva students endure. And if they delay this suffering for them now by four years, then we are willing to consider this. The thing that will be very, very hard for them right now and truly difficult to come to terms with is that Netanyahu will be second, not because they are Bibists, but because there will truly be—listen, we’ve reached a situation where there are sects here, by the way, on both sides. There is a segment of the Left, center-Left, of the Democrats and further beyond, who are purely, and truly, and strictly: Netanyahu must be out, the Haredim must be drafted to the last one. And there is the majority of the "change camp" public that Gadi Eizenkot represents or even where they are, Yesh Atid is there—no, Netanyahu needs to go out, we have to make compromises. We can go back, but wait, to United Torah Judaism, in the authority, on the other side. >> What can you tell us about United Torah Judaism? We know that Degel HaTorah will go for any arrangement. I, by the way, if we reach an arrangement, it’s possible to reach it with Eizenkot—I’m in favor. We ultimately need to reach our own arrangements. I’m doubtful if it’s possible, as you opened and said, but if it is possible, it should be examined. And it also doesn’t harm us that it’s being examined and we see that they are willing to work it out, it serves us. What can you say about Gafni , who isn’t ready for sanctions? >> Gafni is unequivocal that he won't go with Netanyahu, I’m talking to you, but Gafni is also not ready for anything; he’s not ready for a law with sanctions or anything, he’s not ready for anything . And what can you say about Porush and Stark—where will they be, since Porush is much more... >> But this settles it for everyone, this pushes off the entire discussion on it— they are making a temporary provision law that defers the discussion on it for four years; it goes back to what it was before the High Court decision. >> In the meantime, there is nothing, no one is being drafted, and "his Torah is his craft" continues even if the government is, for example, for years— that won’t pass. >> It will be a four-year reprieve, there will be a sweeping amnesty. I remind you that back in the day with President Chaim Herzog, in the Bus 300 affair, they had to do things that nobody thought were even on the edge of illegal, and they were passed to truly prevent the rift that was supposed to happen then in the security services. >> And also, if you read the High Court rulings—and by the way, the majority of judges sitting there today are more identified with Religious Zionism, like Sohlberg and others—you’ll see that you can’t pass such a four-year temporary provision. I tell you, I know a little about the law, I tell you it won’t... >> So first of all, it will be struck down unequivocally because there is an aspect where you are not balancing even slightly the infringement on the value of equality; after all, they have made clear statements... >> Forget about that, come on, it won’t pass; even United Torah Judaism knows it won’t pass. You ultimately need to pass some kind of bill. >> That reflects, in some way, the value of equality. And to expect, and I say this in their language, to expect this to pass in the High Court—or a temporary provision where you say "in the meantime we’ll draft, we’ll leave all the sanctions, just remove the arrests"— that is something that could pass. But to go and do a presidential pardon, the president presents a complete package that includes a blanket amnesty, including the removal of moral turpitude . There have already been events in the history of the State of Israel—by the way, also the unity governments of the 80s. President Chaim Herzog, Boji Herzog's father, had to cut corners; they had to pass all kinds of laws to enable that unity government. Looking just this week, I saw what happened in those days. Certainly here—ultimately, there is an Israeli society here wounded since 2019, tearing itself apart from within; into this entered the whole issue of the Haredim, and also Netanyahu's trials since 2016 which made things difficult, and the indictments didn't help, to say the least. We need to heal Israeli society. They always knew how to cut corners. I am telling you that it will pass the High Court of Justice. That this majority, so I am of the court , hello. >> So I am telling you, I... >> Anyone who thinks such a thing will pass is delusional. >> So I will tell you one sentence. Short remarks for people who are stubborn, and we are like that already, so just the bottom line: I will say from knowledge that I tell you it will pass; the whole problem right now is whether Netanyahu will agree to be in that situation or not. That is the question, and upon that will the decision truly fall as to whether we will see some framework here that puts an end to all this chaos or not. I will say in summary , from my position, it won't pass, but the very fact that we are talking about it will help, and it will help any future enlistment arrangement there will be, to say everyone agreed that there is an arrangement, but let's leave something for the next episode; we will also talk further about the midterms, that's why I... >> am here to report, but everything is okay. >> Definitely, definitely, Avi, we are truly waiting for the report this week in the newspaper on all the developments in the US midterms, which is no small matter that could potentially impact us ; let's leave something for the next episode. >> Goodbye and thank you very much. >> Thank you very much, Israel, see you in the next episode, remember it, thank you very much. >> You have been listening to "Katzar Al HaInyan" on the Mishpacha podcast; I am Israel Yosekovitz, and with me is Attorney Avi Blum; thanks to the content editor Tehila Siton, production manager Ayala Goldstein, and sound editors Dvir Mivizel, Daniel Avin, and Hila Vilal; all series and episodes are waiting for you on the Mishpacha website, in all podcast apps, and on the phone line 076-7-20202 extension 77. See you in the next episodes.