Fourcast Episode 4: Yalla, Nasrallah

as far as Biden and Harris are concerned while they welcomed the assassination of nasala because he's responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans they say we have to avoid escalation I think that's disappointing and it's the wrong message we all remember that Donald Trump was furious at BB Netanyahu accused of him of being disloyal something he says about Jews a lot welcome to the forecast where four from pundits talk politics meet the allstar lineup I'm Benyamin Rose Misha magazine editor at large I'm Mory litwak teach Coalition CEO and political Insider I'm Stu loer longtime Democratic communication strategist and I'm Ellie Steinberg conservative commentator okay so let's get down to politics welcome to another edition of the for I'm joined today as always by Stu loser Ellie Steinberg and the Y Ro we have an exciting program today we're going to get right into it terrorist leader Hezbollah leader Nala was assassinated as the news have put out there today and everyone's reacting to it it really begs the question of how will the Middle East in general and how Israel is handling terrorism affect and impact the American elections but at the same time that happened Ukrainian president zalinski found himself in a a bit of trouble where he went to Pennsylvania a Battleground Street to visit a medition factory something that he felt was connected to the Ukrainian war and got massively criticized for so we're here today to jump right into it and talk about something we haven't talked about at length before which is how is foreign policy going to impact these elections in the next 40 days 45 days as we get closer and closer to that date so I'll kick it off right away with Stu loer what do you think Stu these are two serious existential issues the fate of the world literally stands in the balance anytime you have a serious moment and you have Donald Trump he fails to rise to it and if he rises to it he can't rise to it for more than a minute we saw this when he talked to zinski and talked about how he thought Vladimir Putin didn't even really want to fight the war anymore and would be willing to settle if only Donald Trump was President the more we talk about serious issues not polls tricks not anything else not force race stuff but serious World issues more people will see that Donald Trump is not up for the job in Kel Harris advances by default Ally what do you think so just um two-part answer to answer your your question directly how much will impact the race to the extent that there are people in this country who care say more about what's going on in Ukraine than they care about you know the kitchen table issues the economy Etc then it would impact the race however every bit of data that we have tells us this is really an economy election economy and the border and those are the Donald Trump issues regarding Stew's Point as to which candidate would actually be better sure there's a lot of people who would make this argument that st's making that Trump gets distracted etc etc but people and this is the the item about the economy that's working very much in Trump's favor people remember that during the years that Trump was President we didn't have this world on fire sort of situation that we have now and that's the part that also works very well for him so people might have opinions about Ukraine people might have opinions about anything else in the foreign policy Arena but people will remember there were no massive conflicts going on and people felt safer and people felt more importantly to this election like their money by the federal government was being spent where it should be on them all right so so I want before you get into it which we expect and and we're excited about Ben y you've covered Israeli politics for decades you're you're in in Israel as we speak give us a little flavor for what's going on there in terms of how how you think about this the one bit of flavor that I can give is shabas morning you know everyone knows that I d inin i d in N I'm up very early and I'm up around the same time that the Arabs are uh stou out their call to prayer from the mosques now I live probably about two miles away from the nearest Arab neighborhood so in the background in the morning when I wake up I always hear them but on Shabbat morning they were so loud I couldn't believe it and I said something must have happened something must be different today that they're so loud and uh now of course in my neighborhood we have a lot of people who are involved in security so they're still online even on Shabbat and I found out what happened during the course of the morning right after doing actually and of course I had to wait for many hours in order to actually sign in myself and confirm what happened but people needless to say were in a very celebratory mood the Shabbat in erel to try to get this back to the uh presidential race in in America right now as we're speaking it's about 48 hours after the assassination and I'm surprised that we haven't heard one official word from Donald Trump about this I know that Jared Kushner did Issue a very long uh missive on X where he called the assassination of nasala the biggest thing in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords but we've heard absolutely nothing from Trump himself I'm I'm surprised I know that by the time people are listening to this I'm sure he'll have waited in with the reaction but again I'm speaking at this moment again 48 hours after the assassination and it's not like Trump is a guy who the cat got his tongue so I'm waiting to hear what he what he says now as far as Biden and Harris are concerned while they welcomed the assassination of nasala because he's responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans not to mention thousands of other people over the years once again they're sending the same double message that they've been sending all along when in the same speech where they applaud Israel so to speak for the assassination they say we have to avoid escalation I think that's disappointing and it's the wrong message I was just listening to a interview that Jade kapper CNN did with Dan Sullivan a republic senator in Alaska Sullivan is on the armed services committee he made a very important point he said the way to avoid escalation and we all want to avoid escalation but the Republican way of avoiding escalation according to Sullivan is to allow Israel to restore its deterrence now that's very hard to do but Israel is doing it so we have to let Israel play offense a little bit longer and let the other side beg for a ceasefire and uh that way we'll avoid escalation and just as a final note I want to mention that as of this moment if you were to look on wet or the website the lead story has a headline hey West don't interfere Israel is working and then the analysis says Israel did the right thing because it cannot suffer anymore from the world's blindness whoever wants peace must strike at Hezbollah while threatening Iran and this article was written by benjor yumini now despite the last name yumini he is not a yanii benjar yini is a lefty he's very anti nanyu but uh he basically came out and said the same thing this is the uh this is the spirit in Israel we have to finish our work and from a political point of view Americans will have to decide which type of administration will let Israel and Ukraine finish the type of work it needs to do will it be Trump or will it be Harris let's kick it back over to steu here steu in terms of the of what B saying he said Biden Harris and I thought to myself oh he makes a mistake because he's forgot that Harris is running but I'm like no no he he's tying it because of that do you think that this type of thing is credited like do you think the foreign policy is attached to Biden sort of hand in hand still stew or these things sort of go similar like how how closely is this affecting here because the zalinsky thing is an issue we haven't even talked about that how closely is the foreign policy sort of being wrapped up with Harris right now and affecting it and I also want you to comment on why has Trump not commented right now on this major issue happening in Israel and I mean Jared Kushner did but that's not Trump the second one is e CU clearly he hasn't commented because he doesn't think it's in his interest to comment or he thinks it's not in his interest to comment same thing as abortion same thing as every other issue it's important to religious Christians he's with him until they're locked in with him and then he's looking for someone else he perhaps hasn't gotten polling information to show what people should actually think these are complicated issues in American politics I guess um as for foreign policy KLA Harris has Joe Biden's Legacy whether or not she likes it and it is a strong Legacy there are people in who are among our listeners who dispute parts of it although they would also dispute my friend Ellie's assumption or statement that everything was great prior to October 7th or prior to uh prior to a couple years ago that it was really okay when people were just building tunnels and not running through them I that's that's a bit of an exaggeration of what you said Ellie but I don't think our listeners think that that the world our world wasn't on fire before definitely think that it's come to the surface Ellie you give us a final word here what what are your thoughts here again I think Ben brought up a good point in terms of Trump's reaction to it I'm also interested in in in your commentary a little bit on this zinsky thing which which again I think is is important that he was in Pennsylvania what are your sort of closing thoughts on all this sure so regarding Trump I think this point pulls us back very well to the discussion we had last week nobody thinks that the Bull game for Trump is whether or not he releases a statement everybody every body knows where Trump stands on Israel everybody knows where Trump stands on Israeli security nobody has a doubt as much as St wants to make it happen nobody has a doubt that Trump wouldn't be backing Israel on such a move if you find that person unless they're you know dny let me know but nobody nobody has a doubt where Trump stands with Israel right I mean he did things that even other Republicans we consider pro Israel wouldn't do like mov the embassy Etc not that okay that's a different episode this goes to to words versus actions just remember the Israelis used the 2,000lb bombs to take out nsta just a few weeks ago kamla Harris at the National Association for black journalists said she was fully behind and and felt that the resolution for the conflict in the Middle East one of her big moves was being fully behind the PO sending the 2,000lb Munitions to Israel so if KLA Harris would have her way Israel possibly would not have the Munitions that they needed to take out Hassan Nala and that's actions not words I gotta let steu respond real quick like I want to get back to what you were saying about about zalinski in Pennsylvania zalinski then came back and met with Trump at Trump Tower and Trump talked about his impeachment and how zalinsky treated him we all remember that Donald Trump was furious at BB Netanyahu accused of him being disloyal something he says about Jews a lot Trump says about Jews a lot for calling Joe Biden and congratulating him on winning after it was clear to anyone who isn't lying that Joe Biden had won it is not so clear that Donald Trump is going to do what's in Israel's interest he's going to do what's in his interest and supporting Israel is only in his interest as long as it's in his interest all right we're I mean there's not just just on this point there's recorded history that everyone can use to make their decisions about where Donald Trump stands on Israel Ben you didn't comment on the on the Ukraine zinsky thing and I think we didn't do enough on that either what what are your thoughts on that just closing in terms of that is that a net positive for Trump is that a net negative for the Harris walls what do you think great thoughts because there was a lot of Republican criticism to zelinsky's visit to Pittsburgh and part of that criticism was based on the fact that zinsky criticized JD Vince and said that uh he's he's radical or maybe too radical to be in office and people took that as foreign interference in American elections I have no great love lost for Ukraine to have uh really brutal history when it comes to anti-Semitism over the centuries however uh Russia wasn't very good on anti-Semitism either over the centuries and uh certainly I have no great love lost for them in that regard uh I think that Vance made a mistake he basically takes a position that Ukraine should seed some territory to Russia I don't think that Putin should be rewarded by one sliver of land for the aggression that he voed upon Ukraine uh but I I think that zalinsky damaged his cause when he appeared to take sides so this will still be played out I think over the next year or so once uh the new Administration takes over we have to get in the lightning round we got to go we got to go I can hear the clouds going we are on the eve of the vice presidential debate who do we think is going to win that debate wal surance remember we have five minutes for five questions so let's keep it quick bam you go first please who's going to win that debate I think Hance will win the debate but the media will declare Ralls the winner interesting Allie what do you think oh there's no question JD Vance is going to win the debate he's going talk with substance and he's going to talk to what people care about and ultimately that's what it comes down to whether or not it's going to make a difference in the polls probably not because as we all know nothing matters Ste pre-existing conditions matters having a sick person in your family and not getting the rest of your family kicked off the health insurance this is not a a righteous thing it's a political thing JD Vance this week in response to the last debate where Donald Trump had the conception of a plan rolled out their plan to fundamentally put healthy people in one set of health insurance companies and sick people in another for communities like ours larger families greater incidences of certain diseases extremely troubling because we lose health insurance but like I would argue to answer your question Ally he's already lost a debate because it's going to be a continuation the previous one he's already lost to Healthcare Healthcare is one of the most important issues my prediction is is that John Adams said famously it's one of the most irrelevant positions has ever been created I don't believe in the slightest that it's going to affect elections at all I think that that since Lloyd Benson had his moment that was the last time it was St it was very relevant I know that Harris had her moment of I'm speaking it and that was a big moment for her but otherwise I don't think it's going to make much of a difference here I think it'll probably be pretty much net net with the two of them they're both intelligent individuals who know how to debate I I don't think it's going to be that that different and they're about the same age you know give or take so um I'm sorry he's a little younger he's a little younger they're not they're both we don't have we don't have a candidate in either one who's who's nearly 80 let me reframe that so I think that'll be important arade Jr has removed himself from four balagon states my opinion on this is it doesn't matter I don't think anyone cares about RFK Jr politically but I was curious just quickly gentlemen what do you think about that does it have an impact on the elections steu what do you think you know there's a lot of factors abortion is going to be a factor the fact that trunk is losing parts of Nebraska by nine points is a factor because that means he's also going to lose their similar Parts a Missouri by nine points RFK not really a factor Ellie what do you think in a title election the small slivers we know that margins are very small there are small s that make a difference there is a small sver that's this RFK Tulsi voter that is kind of fanatical and would follow off the cliffs I think it it does have the potential to to to Really I'm sticking with what I've said up until now that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election and I don't see RFK or Joel Stein or anyone else on the ballot influencing who's going to win Pennsylvania Pennsylvania will either be won by Trump or by Harris and it might not even be as close as it was last time one reason Paul has prump ahead only by one point in Florida is Florida a concern gentlemen Ellie what do you think no our resident Republican no what you think I use their brains you know absolutely every state where every state where there's abortion matters every state where there are Haitians who he has slandered and slimed uh and there's a lot of them in in Florida maybe they haven't turned out before but they will absolutely Florida's bam the Republicans have a huge Edge in registration Statewide and it's gotten bigger as uh the last couple of years have gone on I think part of what might be dragging Trump down in the in Florida is the fact that Rick Scott is running for reelection and uh he's certainly in a tight race against his Democratic opponent but uh I see Trump winning by at least seven points in Florida I agree with the Y we don't talk about New York being red and we don't talk about Florida being blues uh economy is seemingly recovering Harris Trail Trump by only 3% among American adults pulled by Marist which candidate would be better at holding the economy does this help Harris seemingly so I would say it does I think that that's big news only 40 days in let's talk to our stew what do you think absolutely yes on to the next Ellie you know every poll has biases look at Maris um lean um there's no question um nobody nobody who's paying um grocery bills thinks that the economy in this country is actually doing better than it was four years ago S&P maybe I mean yes but not the things that matter to the voters B what do you think having worked in the financial markets for many years for 13 years in my career in addition to over 30 years in journalism I know that there's normally a big lag time between the time that the statistics start to improve and uh people themselves feel the Improvement so right now uh we see a lot of the stats getting better uh certainly interest rates have started to come down gas prices have definitely come down uh but people are going to feel that uh you know we haven't seen the improvement in our lives yet so I think that when it comes to those who are going to vote on the economy I would still give an edge to uh the Republican ticket over the Democratic ticket so what last question and then and really Gentlemen Just 10 15 seconds you got to give us your prediction if you don't have one that's fine this will air and almost be October will we have an October surprise do we see an October surprise coming everyone talks about it you know what what do we see we think we think you're going to have a big some big October surprise Ellie what do you think I don't think at this point that there's anything left in the presidential that can surprise anybody yeah there there's nothing there's going to be nothing surpris think about the October surprises we've seen right none of that would surprise you today nothing could beat it bam what do you think Bing another assassination attempt God forbid I think that we've seen the worst of what can happen and I think the last month of the uh campaign will be unusually uneventful St shaking his head no we're going to be fighting in places that you would never imagine that we would be fighting at all Republican Turf bold prediction which is perfect timing now for our fearless forecast our fearless forecast I'm going to start off and I'm going to make a Fearless forecast going back to the top of the hour I think the zalinski thing is Big Americans hate it when they feel like foreign leaders are interfering in their elections and I think it's I think it's a big deal that him he went to Pennsylvania he got W widely criticized for it I think it's going to be I think if if there's a pullon or something else that happening I think he's going to pick up steam this week and Beyond I I think it is a pivotal it's something that Americans understand and the idea that a Ukrainian leader this he's going to come to Pennsylvania and weigh in and I saw he made a remark also about about uh Vance also I I think it's bad it's bad and I think it's going to have an impact B what do you give us for your Fearless forecast this week I think that China has a chance of starting up with Taiwan sooner than we expect there's been talk in American defense circles that China is looking toward 2027 in order to attack Taiwan I think it could happen faster not in the next month but uh this is something we really have to watch the uh the Far East could really get destabilized fast and change the whole picture in the world another foreign policy prediction steu what do you got for us anything domestic yeah so I couldn't say this under the October surprise question you asked because it's not going to be a surprise but Donald Trump will melt down he is not able to be in a close race there's going to be a movie coming out about him about his early life on October 11th that he is going to fight he's got a a movie people are going to think he is crazy and he is going to continue to lose ground a bold prediction what do you Ellie what do you got for your Fearless forecast Trump we know from the last two cycles is if not the best among the best closers in presidential politics he's in a better position right now in polling data for whatever that means than he's ever been at this point in the election and I think that we'll see a lot of the swing state polls from high quality pollsters coming out moving closer to more into the Trump column or further into the Trump column over the next couple of weeks so steu thinks he's going to implode and Ellie's calling him Mr October now we have baseball playoffs coming up that was another edition of the forecast we are thrilled that you listened there's nowhere else you're going to get this level of news this quickly in in about 20 minutes if you agree with bamin or Ellie or Stu or myself or you disagree with Ellie or Stu or Benyamin or myself please let us know we are interested and in future episodes we would love to share some of those agreements or disagreements and see whether or not you can do battle with any of our fearless forecast and you can do that by going to podcast p o d c a s TS at mb.com podcast mb.com we look forward to hearing from you and we'll see you on the next episode thank you all