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The Weekly Update with Nachum Segal and Malcolm Hoenlein on JM in the AM
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Nachum Segal welcomed Malcolm Hoenlein of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations to this morning's JM in the AM for the Weekly Update. They discussed the latest news concerning Israel and the Jewish community around the world.
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Malcolm Hoenlein is with us. We call
this the weekly update. Conference of
Presidents of Major American Jewish
organizations.
It is time to discuss the events of this
week and it seems there's only one event
to discuss this week. Mr. Hoenlein,
welcome back to JM in the AM.
>> Thank you. It's good to be with you.
Hope you're feeling better.
>> We're getting there.
Slowly but surely.
Sort of like the formation of the
Israeli government. Slowly but surely.
>> But I'm not sure there's a cure for
that.
>> I'm not even sure about the surely part
when it comes to that, frankly.
All right. I guess we'll start from
where we are now. No need to rehash all
of the uh different things that went on
during the week.
And how right after the election results
started coming out, we thought the uh
results would go one way and then all of
a sudden, hours later, the results went
another way. Right now, right now with
the final count in with 100%
of the votes counted, the Netanyahu
quote-unquote natural block
would have 53 seats and Eisenkot's
natural block
would have 48. And obviously, you're
going to have to address for us your
comments and your thoughts regarding the
Arab-led parties getting a record
19 seats. So, first of all, let's start
with this uh
process. Obviously, the president of the
state of Israel
has an obligation to allow the most
likely I guess the whoever whichever
member of Knesset can prove that they
most likely could form a government to
actually go ahead and try to form that
government. Is it going to be Netanyahu?
Is it obvious to everybody on both sides
that Netanyahu's going to be getting
that first offer from the president?
>> No, it's not uh
obvious. I mean, what you're painting is
right. Uh the president invites each of
the heads of a party to come in
and they and they ask them to express a
preference
for
if either they want to do it or if they
will recommend who they would likely
follow.
And so there is a scenario in which
Eisenkot could be
be given the first choice, the
opportunity.
But it's not certain at all at this
point.
The pressure will build
to preempt
the process and and it which will have
to go through cuz it's it's mandated.
And then it could go on for months. He I
think he he will start meeting the
parties in the middle of this week. This
coming week. And then
has to make a recommendation and then
that party has several months in which
to I think it can go up to 3 months to
to try and form a government. But it'll
become pretty apparent quickly whether
they're able to and that will depend
also on the range of available coalition
partners and particularly the 19 seats
held by the Arab parties.
And you know, if you people know the
history that these are being painted in
idyllic terms
about Rama's partner etc. But read some
of Abbas's statements and stuff and you
see why there's some hesitation on doing
it. And
I think the remarkable turnout which
does not get recognition. It's the It's
probably the only place in the Middle
East where an Arab can vote for an Arab
freely.
And
[clears throat] elect people
without intimidation. The the question
of foreign interference
is going to loom very large
if in fact Qatar as being alleged
provided funding.
And inducements
to the for the Arab vote.
So that's one sector. Then it comes the
internal machinations. You know, BB has
to line up the partners.
Uh [clears throat]
and Eisenkot the same. Will he be able
to to go together with Bennett and Lapid
in a party? Would the two of them join
Bibi?
Or which would give them a majority and
you lop off the Ben-Gvir's and you will
lop off the
Golan, the extreme left and and the
right parties,
and have a a governing majority and do
some sort of a rotation.
As you know, people don't trust
Netanyahu because in the past the
rotations, you know, ended after his
term ended. So, they um
you know, they those are issues that
really loom very large.
And those who swore that they would
never join, you see even Lieberman
doesn't take the phone calls, neither
from Eisenkot nor from the other side.
And
it's a game he has played before as
well.
So, all these things have to work
themselves out. Uh and as people work
themselves up, they do not want another
election. That's my sense from everybody
I talked to. People are exhausted from
it. They want an outcome. They want
stability. They want somebody that can
face the challenges internally, the
economic challenges,
and the
aftermath of war, the costs and things
that are entailed, even though the
projections
as I think I said last week with the
OECD projection show Israel with the
fastest economic growth for next year
way ahead of the United States at 4.6 or
7%.
But the day-to-day cost of living and
the expenses that are are entailed and
the you know, the the health care for
all those wounded, the making up for the
lost wages, the businesses that that
were impacted, all of these things, and
they need somebody who can lead. I think
it's very heavy in their minds that
they're not looking for flamboyance,
they're looking for stability.
And you know, well, they want
accountability too. That's a big issue
still looming out there.
And I think all of those factors will
come into play and and
>> [clears throat]
>> President Herzog
has to weigh those considerations about
who realistically
can make that can make that coalition
possible to meaning 61 votes.
And and I'm not sure right now that any
coal anything other than a broad
coalition
or the major parties coming together in
some way can do it.
>> The does he have a real deadline like is
there a legal deadline for the president
to start and you know
handing out assignments to these parties
or he can take as long as he wants.
>> No, I I think there there are
requirements.
I know that the parties when they're
given the assignment do have a limited
time and then they get an extension and
I think it can go as I recall up to 3
months.
>> Right.
>> Uh uh but
>> president himself he could take a couple
of weeks with his interview process.
>> He he can take time for the interview
process absolutely.
>> And if there was another
>> have in the past.
>> Yeah. And by the way before I even talk
about another election, you have alluded
to over the last couple of weeks how
you know Bibi has this unique ability to
you know survive-ability ability
that you've described to us and nobody
should ever be surprised if he comes out
on top and sure enough it's pretty
amazing in the aftermath of October 7th
with everything that's happening with
the you know just the what what you
would think would be a natural fatigue
for somebody who's
you know in the 80-year-old range and
has been you know leading for all these
years you would think that that would
all have come out against him but he has
a solid block of support that for
decades has not wavered in Israel. It's
really an interesting
political phenomenon.
>> It is and it's it's unique probably in
the world today and having now being the
longest-serving prime minister ever
and it's one of the factors you know
that people say democracy requires
change and needs to be refreshed. It's
it's in there but on the other hand you
know you were going into a very
difficult time. First we don't know what
changes will take place because of the
American Congress. So, the relationship
between the president and the prime
minister is very critical and clearly
his endorsements the Trump endorsements
uh reflect that the working relationship
that exists and and I believe that the
the events regarding Iran will uh
accelerate soon.
Uh it there is certainly there appears
to be the commitment on that. We can
talk about the that situation, but you
know,
people are going to want stability and
want to know who has his hand on the
tiller. The truth is people forget that
it was Netanyahu who played a very
significant role in the economic miracle
of building it when he was as minister
of
finance or treasury
uh many years ago
and that he does understand the the
dynamics of the economics. The problem
is he's also going to be burdened with
with uh
investigations and at some point the
court case is going to have to
you know, finish
and we don't know the outcome. One of
the suggestions that has been
prominently put forward is that if
there's a rotation government that for
the years that the two years that Trump
is in office Bibi would remain
uh
and then leaves office and get a a
pardon or
a full pardon uh for the charges and
that he would then retire from from
political life. He'll as you said, he'll
be
over 80 by that time
and
uh [clears throat] we'll see whether
that that is a possible solution. There
are others in those in the major
parties, the other major parties who
have said they would not sit in a
Netanyahu-led uh
>> [clears throat]
>> government. So, we'll have to we'll have
to see.
>> If there was another election a couple
of months from now, do you think the
results would be much different?
>> I don't see the basis on which the the
difference. Maybe the smaller parties,
you know, will drop out, the ones that
didn't cross the threshold.
And uh so, those votes which are lost in
this circumstance if you don't get 3.25%
and there's talk about raising it to 5%
uh
the threshold to qualify, then those
votes are are lost and are portioned
amongst the parties.
The
uh so there could be changes and maybe
people will look at and the one thing
they won't want is is instability.
>> Right.
>> If if in fact there were financial
dealings or stuff involving the Arab
vote, which again has not been proven
but alleged, and the investigation
in a very unusual manner that the the
head of the elections oversight
Judge Steinberg ordered within the week.
I think by next Thursday or Friday they
have to give a report but that the the
people in the in the Mossad already are
indicating that they have evidence
about about some of this.
Everything can have an impact if if
we're going to be looking at elections
probably in February or March.
>> Right.
All right.
We'll we'll talk about the
the accusations
about and the circumstances of the of
the fraud in a in a moment, but I you
know the big issue and for this audience
this might be the actual biggest issue.
We know and we don't even have to go
into detail. We we know from recent
modern Jewish history the impact that
small parties, especially blocks of
small parties, have on elections and
have on legislature and
you know have on legislating in Israel.
We know it. We we've seen it. We've seen
small parties, you know, basically I
don't want to say blackmail but but
certainly hold you know
hold the rest of the coalition
accountable on certain issues because
they threaten to leave the coalition.
If in fact there's now 19 Arab seats and
you know with the assumption because
there is a precedent, there is a
precedent of Israeli
um the government officials forming a
coalition that includes Arab parties.
Are we headed toward a time where for
the sake of governing, for the sake of
power
uh an Israeli uh future prime minister
might invite up to 19 or more
Arab seats into the coalition and you
know, and they'll be part of the ruling
government. And of course, by extension,
as I said earlier, they'll have the
ability to blackmail and withhold and
deal make, etc. etc. with the
government.
>> So, there is a as you said, there's a
precedent. It's not that they and and
and I know it's confusing to everybody,
including me, about the the system, but
they can they become part of the 61
vote
majority in the Knesset. In other words,
they pledge support for the government.
And especially when the government is
formed, it doesn't mean that they'll
vote for everything they do.
But that that they can go to the
president and say we have 61 votes
supporting the government, even though
they will not be in the government. In
other words, they won't hold any
portfolios
in the government itself, but they will
pledge from outside of the government
support for it.
And once they have you 61 votes, you get
approved, then they move on. And they
want to move on
uh
as you know, because in the Knesset
without them yet forming a government,
the um
the block, the opposition
with the Arabs will have a majority.
And they will then move to elect
the a new speaker. They will get rid of
try to get rid of Ohana, who's done an
amazing job and as
he's a Likud appointed, obviously. And I
think a remarkable man in in the job
that he's done in his outreach.
Um
but he's uh
that he's their number one target now
because the speaker helps control the
agenda.
And has a lot of say in and putting
bills forward and giving priority to
things.
And they have a a legislative agenda
that they want to start introducing.
And this is
uh
So this is
another consideration and and the reason
why to move faster
to [clears throat] preempt that kind of
move which is obviously going to be very
divisive and could be, you know,
exploited for the partisan gain
by either side. Could do but whoever
wins that tends to do it. But
particularly targeting the speaker which
is something they've said
publicly is is the goal. So that
>> So naturally aren't they just an
election or two away if there's this
amount of momentum and enthusiasm among
the Arabs in Israel to vote for their
own? Are they election or two away to
have real influence? Like if they could
do what you just described
is the inevitable going to be that they
actually will be holding cabinet
positions? That they actually will be
part of a real government cuz down the
road it'll be the only way that that a
that that a ruling party or the largest
party can form a government is with
them?
>> Ra'am was part of the of a government in
the past but the answer is yes and
I don't know that you can sustain this
momentum but you know, the the the Arab
parties were paid off very handsomely
with budgets and and expenditures in in
the Arab areas. They obviously will will
press for additional funding and for
policy changes that they think are
important and
and that could become also divisive but
at the I mean they're only 20% of the
population and that and it's a 20% that
turned out. Overall the participation
was remarkable. It was in the
75%
range, which is astounding and it's and
it's across the board.
And it's not the foreign votes that came
in. They account for maybe a seat to
seat and a half at most, but the the um
I think the the Arab vote
and we'll see what the investigation
show. I mean, they they're entitled to
vote. It's democracy. We believe in it.
>> Right, but we have to see that that
there's no corruption though.
>> But when someone like Smotrich calls it
an emergency situation for his camp,
meaning as I just said that, you know,
that they're going to they could God
forbid destroy Israel from within the
political process, is that just
hyperbolic? Is that just
you know, declaring a panic situation
for no reason?
>> Well, for them because they could be
shut out of the government and because
they get voted,
it becomes politically certainly
a very challenging
and others would say that that, you
know, the
the more power we we've seen for
instance in the Negev what has happened
with the spread of the Arab population,
Bedouin populations.
These are things that need to be
addressed for the security of Israel and
it's not against anybody. It's come up
with rational policies. Um as you see
the borders in many places like Umm
al-Fahm have been completely erased.
And these governments haven't done it.
So, what will happen in under the you
know, even more favorable circumstances
for them is something that has to be
carefully examined.
And and you know, the the um
internal situation will be as important
as the security matter as some of the
external threats.
>> Right.
>> And especially if we're heading
towards an Iran decision,
this kind of division is not going to be
good.
>> It's America's one and only Jewish
Moments in the Morning radio program
heard on listener sponsored digital
radio. Rabbi Nachman Kahane is coming up
next of course with the beloved NSN app.
Malcolm Honlein with us. It's the weekly
update.
So, the only real
and I know some people won't like that I
say this, but the only real
way to establish a stable government
would have to be some type of deal
between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Right? I
mean, that's that's the Otherwise,
you're dealing with a
you know, a 61-seat majority with
members that are not really happy to be
there and they may threaten to leave.
Right? The only way to have some type of
really stable government going forward
is for the two of them to sit down and
work it out.
>> Well, it'll be stable in terms of
numbers, but you have a lot of people in
those parties who have made you know,
declarations on both sides that we can't
live with the other side or that they
tend to be more divisive in in the in
the positions they they stake. So, total
stability is if you had one party with
really 61 votes or or a very close
coalition
of 61 votes or 70 votes as Netanyahu had
in the past or even more. Um, and it
didn't prove to be stable as they peel
off when they don't get what they want.
And uh but it minimizes the the
leverage. In the case, the closer you
the results are, it means that smaller
parties
or segments have uh outsized
[clears throat] leverage and that means
on the budget and on on some of the
battles that will come up and you know,
the sensitive issues. We've discussed
them in the past that are are likely to
um to come to the fore.
That that the that spread is very
important. So, the if there's a majority
and if they can agree on fundamentals
which has to be in the in a coalition
agreement at least on the fundamentals
and the major issues. On Iran, I think
that there is total agreement on on
dealing with some of the security
threats with Gaza, Hezbollah. There's
there's generally a a nationwide
consensus.
Uh on other issues, including draft and
and things like that, there is certainly
not.
>> Yeah, the Haredi parties which
traditionally are with Likud, can they
be swayed to go with Eisenkut?
>> Um the problem is that they really
they've drawn a tough line on the
registration and and [clears throat] um
issue. I mean military participation.
I think that you could get uh some shots
generally uh goes along with the shots
suffered a huge setback. And there's
questions about whether Derry can stay
as head of it now. They're down to six
seats. And they had double that number
in the past. Um
and the um
so
it you'd have to take party by party and
and analyze it. But I think that because
the tensions are so deep without them
negotiating certain assurances, I have
to say that I think that there is
changing attitudes in significant parts
of the ready community about finding a
solution in service. Um but
>> Is that why Is that why Shas didn't do
as well or that's a different story?
>> No, I I think Shas I think it's it's
internal machinations and
you know, people can vote you know, a
lot of obviously the Shas constituency
are smarter than they can go to Likud,
they could go other parties. Um
and maybe they went Spin Gabir some of
them or or for others. People don't just
vote uh religious don't just vote for
religious parties and some non-religious
voted for for people who are very
traditional want to see the the Jewish
character protected.
You know, it work it's it's a much more
complicated dynamic.
>> All right. And on the fraud side, so
there are some arrests. I mean people
were actually arrested for for bribery,
for charges of trying to bribe people to
vote a certain way. They found the
envelopes with a lot of shekels in them
with wrong with
>> [laughter]
>> with wrong ballot cards accompanying all
those shekels. I mean, you know, we
we've heard about we've heard about
foreign interference. So, we've heard
about you know, efforts to swing
elections that are not you know,
stealing elections. But this Malcolm is
like a whole new level. Literally
standing there and bribing people with
cash to vote a certain way. It's pretty
remarkable.
>> Well, it's actually not so unusual as
you may think. Even in places like the
United States, this does happen. We have
a lot of foreign interference here and
in Israel the same. Our accusations,
which Qatar strongly denies and came out
publicly and
uh
you know, vehemently denied it. But the
the investigation will be known very
soon. It'll be a couple days. Uh but
there is evidence that there was huge
amounts of cash coming in to to uh
elevate the Arab vote and to get them to
vote certain ways. But the the um
uh it's it is not unusual unfortunately
anymore today.
If if the truth would be told you about
the American elections, how much money
came into Michigan, how many how much
money came in from other sources. And
then, if you look at the for instance,
in Michigan, the the uh bots that were
operated and and traced to Indonesia.
They're not American voices, but when
you see the results and people say, "Oh,
look at the poll. Look at this. Look at
the support for these issues." Today,
you cannot believe anymore that this is
American voices or Israeli voices
because you have so much interference
and the capacity to do so often on
untapped Now, with additional advances,
we can trace it and we can find it. And
you will see after it's own a postmortem
after this election, how severe
the foreign interference is by by
changing, let's say, polls and by
uh
producing
uh quote results and and and uh
influencing uh the vote. So
>> So so if I if I read that Michigan
Senate is neck and neck, I shouldn't
believe it.
>> You can't believe anything anymore. I
mean, all the polls, all these things
are are influenced. Uh obviously, there
are some that are are more careful than
others.
And in Israel, the same thing is true. I
mean, the polling you know, notoriously
doesn't reflect the outcome of the
election. Although, this time
>> Yeah, by the way,
>> the deadlock was pretty much predicted.
>> Tuesday night, I had the greatest lie.
Tuesday night, I was telling everybody,
"Finally, finally." Cuz of course,
you're aligned with the with the polls
and then the uh you know, the actual
election.
Finally, the polls were were correct in
Israel. Finally, they got it right. Then
of course, by Wednesday morning,
the seat count was completely different
and uh and you couldn't say that the
pollsters got it right. But we were
almost there. They were almost there
with accuracy, but not uh it didn't
prove itself
once Wednesday morning's uh news came
out. Uh
>> think last week we agreed that a
deadlock was a likely outcome.
>> Yeah, but are we calling this a
deadlock?
>> Well, right now, it's a deadlock. It
certainly is. You can't get much closer
than
>> type of deadlock though, cuz last week
or Tuesday night, I think we were like,
"Wow, how many seats Netanyahu has is so
close to how many Eisenkot has." And
then, you know, you wake up Wednesday
morning and there's a much bigger
margin.
>> Well, also cuz the media was playing it
uh you know, and again, the media is
very political and partisan.
So, they uh kept painting a picture that
didn't necessarily reflect the reality.
>> Yeah, that's true.
I guess we have to call this a deadlock
since it's going to take months before
anybody even uh
shows that they could possibly form a
government.
Um so, last week or earlier in this
conversation as well, you alluded to a
possible strike.
Um and I asked you last week and you
were sort of like um no, it doesn't make
a difference so how the election goes.
Are you still willing to say that
Tuesday's results are irrelevant when it
comes to the decision about the striking
against Iran?
>> I think that uh right now, if if it
doesn't happen
imminently after the American uh
elections,
>> By this time next week?
>> The decisions will be made by this time
next week. I don't think it'll be
dependent on the outcome because I think
President Trump
and Netanyahu are hell-bent on doing it.
I think all the preparations have been
made for it. You know, the another
aircraft carrier in the region, other
signs, the the fact that Iran is acting
more aggressively.
Uh and by the way, an an Israeli cargo
ship was hit off the coast of Bulgaria
and it's believed is that the Russians
may have done it and it sunk. A cargo
ship fully [clears throat] laden. Uh was
sunk. So, it's the situation escalates
even though because of the elections
nobody pays much attention to
uh
what is really happening and and nor the
countermeasures.
Uh
you know, they they they scanned Chevron
for underground tunnels. They find stuff
all the time. Uh
the um
actions that are are being taken um
in Europe, etc. against Israel.
So,
>> [laughter]
>> um
the Iran obviously remains number one
issue. It's moving all the time. There
are signs of activity at the old nuclear
sites and new sites.
And I think the president has made it
clear
again,
you know, you never know what's feigning
and what's what's real, but it's clear
that they are moving in that direction
and I I think it's um
you know, it will not be dependent
because both governments will be in
place. The president and this Congress
will still be there. I think we have to
worry a lot about the new Congress
and the election of DSA people, the most
vicious including in Michigan and Texas
and but many others. Those get
highlighted, but there are members of
Congress who are running
who could win. Uh I don't want to say
likely to win cuz I don't want to give
them any honor, but but who could win
who represented DSA in other parts of
the country.
And uh
we're going to you know, there are very
good friends of ours who are in tenuous
situations and people like you know
really heroes for us Mike Lawler
and many other members of Congress whose
who might be in tight races and we have
to reinforce whether Richie Torres or
whoever it is that have stood up for us
need to hear and see our votes on
election day for everybody and if you
didn't go and vote yet do so earlier the
better so that we get it locked in but
it as long as you vote before the
election and the
the vote counts no matter regardless of
the outcome of it the vote counts
because it's a message to people about
who turns out and who they have to be
taken to account in the future
but there are very disturbing races so
that will put pressure on both Netanyahu
and the president to move now while they
can and before additional restrictions
are placed on them
>> Yeah vote now before the big AI cyber
attack
then then the vote won't count anymore
>> well that that is you know I know you're
saying it in part and just but it's very
serious subject very dangerous for us
and for reasons this is a manipulation
in part against the targeting the Jewish
community in ways that I want to go into
on the air but they
>> that I have not heard literally there
are those who are who are suggesting
that there that the Jewish community is
being targeted
>> well take a look at who heads most of
the AI companies and you'll know why
they want to target them and the
and and more than that it's it's a total
manipulation
through AI where
you can control virtually everything and
even lose control over everything to the
you know
to the automatons of that are created
it's it's far beyond my technical
capabilities and most of us don't
understand and we shut off when we hear
it but if you know how serious
the potential of AI will be it
you know for good and for bad
it it will will be very concerned
>> I liked it better when I was joking
about it.
>> Okay, so we'll joke about
>> Well, I mean you know it's just it's
just much easier to deal with it by way
that's all like you said, you know, you
hear news like this
You start shutting it off two two last
things on Iran. First of all, I mean the
vice president United States at least
according to the New York Times
has produced a letter which
indicates he wants diplomacy. He may
want another you know, Iran deal so to
speak. So is this going against his own
president and what's the likelihood that
there'll be some type of discussion
before any type of strike?
>> Well, he's I mean he's taking a
different position on some of these
things all along
but the ultimate decision rests with the
president.
I think more and more places are
beginning to see how the IHC networks
have impacted are are subverting
governments are are a real threat. The
fact that the Houthis continue
and that we the only way you break Iran
is both through the economic sanctions
and and it would only take a few days.
This would not be
of necessity an elongated war
to
take out the capacity and and finish you
know, their export of what they're still
exporting too much and have some
capacity
to continue to do what they're doing
including
aiding some of their of their
cohorts. [clears throat]
By the way, we cannot finish without
talking about Turkey in this regard too
because that that situation escalating
so much.
>> I was just going to bring up we never
even discussed when the Saudi Arabians,
Pakistanis and Turks got together in
Tehran.
>> Right. So so right now the the
Iranian situation is critical. The
costs are reflected at the gas pumps and
in many other things even though when
you see the ad in Michigan where
everything that is raised price was
blamed on the Jews and ad that actually
ran blamed it on Israel that they that
the price of their bananas is up I mean
it's it's really out of Gerbils and I
don't use those analogies lightly and
the fact that it could run
is
unbelievable
and
you know the permissiveness in the media
generally there's a station that's
running ads that you know it's you can
be an agnostic and be a Jew and be a an
atheist and be a Jew a Buddhist and a
Jew but if you believe in in Jesus you
you you can't be there's something wrong
with this
go to jew.com which is a Jews for Jesus
type site
and
it's it's horrendous and that the mean
and they keep running it despite people
raising concerns about it on major net
station in in New York and maybe more I
don't can't I don't listen to all of
them so I don't know but you know the
permissiveness of of all these things is
is so out of control but the ads and
some that you don't see that run and the
statements have been made around the
country by by candidates it's just it's
not borderline anti-semitism Jew hatred
it's blatant Jew hatred
so
and you know Iran has a finger is often
traced some of the bots and things to
Iran as well
but they're preoccupied a little bit
with some of their own internal things
the situation inside the country
deteriorates and I think a short
targeted attacks
of of several days maybe a week's
duration maybe a little bit longer
would be able to to I think
[clears throat] be the makapapadesha you
know the final blow that we need to uh
to bring about the change which really
it means from the top
>> And when Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and
Turkey send military officials to Iran
that's a statement that what that if the
US attacks we have your back like what
are they saying?
>> No I don't think they're saying it and I
think that many of them are very anxious
to see
the US do it. A lot of this is show.
It's It's the same thing, you know, they
which I expressed concern about here
when it was signed between Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia, and
Turkey.
But you see that they all pledged and
they you know, they said we and attack
on one is attack on others and we will
all rise to the occasion. You see how
they've risen to the occasion.
And then you have
parties the reports that that Saudi
Arabia has offered the Houthis
a billion dollars to buy peace. That
they've done they you know, they buy
their ways out of situation and the
three of them go to to Iran. They all
three hate Iran.
All of them. And and Turkey in
particular they have a lot of conflict
situations. You just notice they don't
come to their aid in a war
even though they threaten the United
States with that. They use it as
leverage against the US-Israel
relationship etc. But
and Pakistan
>> [clears throat]
>> which was playing warmer like Indonesia
which came out this week much harsher
against Israel than they have for a long
time.
Again [clears throat]
some of it has to do with domestic
issues.
And it's for those who look at just the
headlines understand the complexity of
everything that is going on and the
reality which may differ from you know,
what the headline says as to what's
really happening beneath it. The Saudis
are so disappointed in terms of the
support they've gotten
against against the Houthis.
You look at a place I met yesterday with
officials from one Gulf country and you
know, their their unhappiness in the
American troops are moving out of out of
countries traditional bases by the way
which may mean money more will be
stationed in Israel because they're
looking for a safe haven and more
distant from Iran which will lessen the
likelihood that they come under attack
because American resources were attacked
in all the Gulf countries even Qatar,
which is such a hostile country, the
American facilities there were
were targeted and and Qataris were were
hit as well.
So,
don't put too much just in a meeting and
it certainly doesn't mean a new alliance
between the Sunnis and Shiites and etc.
coming together. I think it was meant to
blunt
some of the Iranian
excesses.
>> All right. So, you think most of
November and December will be lamenting
each week the fact that there's no
Israeli government formed yet. It's
going to take a while, right?
>> I think it's going to take if can we
just do Turkey for 1 minute
cuz it's very critical.
Turkey is moving very aggressively and
Turkey in a way and I've said it on the
show, I've said it to especially
terrible leaders in the region, is a
greater threat
than than Iran will be in the future.
Number one, it has an air force, a very
good air force. It has a military the
second largest in NATO. They are member
of NATO. We're talking about selling
them the F-35s. We they have
a very aggressive policy. They are an
Islamist state despite the fact that
they are members of NATO.
The the country is moving consistently
stronger in that direction and Erdogan
is leading it, but Erdogan's son, whom
he sees as his inheritor, is even much
more more extreme than his father.
And and Mrs. Erdogan is also
very Islamist
and they they just signed a deal with
Libya,
which I warned about 2 weeks ago or
whenever when we
talked about it last, that this was in
the offing and that people don't even
take account of it. They say, "Oh, who
cares if they signed a deal with Libya?"
What it does is it establishes a
corridor from Turkey to Libya and now
they're trying to delimit the maritime
borders of Egypt. I don't I I it's very
technical, but believe me, this could be
game-changing. They're trying to build
uh the Shiite arc, which I've a Sunni
arc, which I warned about for a long
time,
uh which will go from Turkey to Qatar,
which is their partner as Muslim
Brotherhood states. And that's why
they're active in the Sudan, and that's
why they're active in Somalia. If you
look at the map, you see the trajectory
that this is taking. They're also more
and more active in Africa.
And this the he is an extreme ideologue
in in every respect. And I think, you
know, Turkey represents such a severe
danger, and yet we have an ambassador
there who is
very beholden and and and is trying to
project beyond what a diplomat is
required to do or supposed to do. He is
He's demonstrating, according to people
locals and others,
uh
has become part of the problem, not the
solution. But he's a close friend of the
presidents, and and you know, it raises
the whole question about all these
special envoys, which in the region are
not seen very favorably.
So, Turkey is something you have we have
to watch, and and unfortunately
administration, I don't think it's
prepared to take Well, certainly not on
another front, but to even act to
restrict the sales and things to to to
Turkey.
>> You suppress one enemy, there's always
another rearing its ugly head.
>> Right.
>> That's the bottom line.
Like one big soap opera. Unfortunately,
it's real life.
Um Malcolm, I thank you. Have a
wonderful Shabbos, and please God, we'll
speak again next week.
>> God willing, everybody should have a
good Shabbos, a peaceful Shabbos. Get
some good rest. We need your energy.
>> And vote.
>> Right. Vote early and often, as Chicago
rules go.
>> It's a 100%.
Mayor Daley would be proud. Malcolm
Hoenlein weekly update
Friday, 7:40 a.m. Eastern time here at J
M in the A.M. Friday.
>> Mhm.