כולם חולמים להיות הפתעת הבחירות – אבל מי יתעורר מחר להפתעה לא נעימה?

If like me you're voting in the Israeli elections, there's all sorts of confusing terminology you need to get used to. The electoral threshold, the ' gush'—the political block—the mandate, and the question of who gets the first chance to form a government; this election, there are two words that could decide the whole thing. The election surprise; have you noticed how many small parties are running this time? With so many parties running, each is hungry for valuable votes, hoping to be the election surprise that crosses the electoral threshold and sweeps into the Knesset. Election surprises come in two distinct varieties: there's the party that unexpectedly makes it into the Knesset, and then there's the party that unexpectedly doesn't, taking tens of thousands of votes down with it. As an outsider to Israeli politics, my question is simply: which side of the political map is going to wake up the morning after election day with a very nasty surprise?